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1038 W 3rd Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 1 bed / 1 bath and 2 bed / 1 bath · 1,890 sq ft

Grand Marais, MN · View the listing ↗

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Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$489,000
2 units · $244K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$397
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$3,825/mo
low confidence
Break-even price
$414,497
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 2019 up/down duplex in Grand Marais, priced at $489K, and the numbers don't work at the ask. Our underwriting shows about -$397/month cash flow at 20% down and a 5.4% cap rate, with a break-even price near $414K. Estimated rents total roughly $3,825 combined, which looks thin against this price. It's newer construction, so big repairs should be low, but the listing gives no rents, no lease info and no tax figure. Get the rent roll, utility setup and real tax bill first. It's worth a showing only if the seller will come down toward the break-even price, and 120 days on market suggests there may be room.

Things to consider

  1. Price is well above what rents support At the ask, cash flow is negative and the cap rate is only 5.4%. Break-even is about $414K, so the gap is significant.
  2. Rents are unknown The listing states no rents or leases. Our estimates range widely on the 2-bed, so actual income could miss.
  3. Heating setup may leave the owner paying heat One boiler appears to serve the building. If the owner pays heat in a cold climate, expenses jump and net income drops.From photo 7
  4. Taxes are unverified The parcel didn't match county records, and an investor's non-homestead tax can be much higher than the seller's bill.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 8Plus

Exterior looks new: fiber-cement-style siding, asphalt shingle roof and a one-stall garage with no visible wear

Listing photo 3
2 of 8Check

Lower-unit kitchen has laminate counters and basic cabinets; stained concrete floors look budget-grade but clean

Listing photo 4
3 of 8Check

Living room photos are virtually staged, so furniture and the room's look are not real

Listing photo 7
4 of 8Plus

Boiler appears to be a modern wall-hung condensing unit with an indirect water heater and zone valves

Listing photo 7
5 of 8Check

The mechanical room appears to serve one shared heating system, so heat may be on one owner-paid bill

Listing photo 9
6 of 8Check

Upper kitchen has a different style from the lower: tile floor, dark cabinets, and appears lived in, which suggests an occupied unit

Listing photo 10
7 of 8Plus

Upper bath has sloped ceiling and a tub/shower with a curtain; condition appears fine

Listing photo 8
8 of 8Check

No photos of electrical panel, laundry rooms, or the foundation and crawl space

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$489,000
Cash to close
$112,470
Price per unit
$244,500
GRM
10.7

Each month

Cash flow
−$397/mo
Cash-on-cash
−4.2%
Cap rate
5.4%
DSCR
0.85×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$414,497
Rent that breaks even
$4,333/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.63M vs $964K
Cash flow turns positive
year 7

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$3,825
Vacancy (6%)−$230
Collected$3,596
Property tax Listing−$358
Insurance Estimate−$189
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$306
Capital reserve (8% of rent)−$306
Net operating income$2,206
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$2,603
Cash flow−$397
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$331

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,633,469
Your equity when you sell
$1,115,715

Sells for $1,186,931 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($71,216). Rent paid down $391,200 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$517,754

$301,687 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$964,065
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$856,150

$112,470 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$107,914

$16,913 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $669,404 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.63M, stocks $964K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

1 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,700/mo · range $1,700–$1,700

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
1501 W Hwy, 61, Grand Marais 55604 $1,850 1 / 1 — 1.1 mi 2026-09-16 92%
801 W 5th St, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,258 2 / 1 — 0.5 mi 2026-07-12 84%
861 5th Ave W, Grand Marais 55604 $1,455 1 / 1 547 0.3 mi 2025-05-14 83%
801 W 5th St, Unit A12, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,511 2 / 1 750 0.6 mi 2025-10-10 75%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 305, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,745 1 / 1 800 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 70%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 303, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,720 1 / 1 800 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 70%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 205, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,700 1 / 1 800 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 70%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 203, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,700 1 / 1 800 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 70%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 105, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,770 1 / 1 800 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 70%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 309, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,695 1 / 1 754 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 70%

2 bed / 1 bath estimate $2,125/mo · range $1,775–$2,475

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
801 W 5th St, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,258 2 / 1 — 0.5 mi 2026-07-12 93%
801 W 5th St, Unit A12, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,511 2 / 1 750 0.6 mi 2025-10-10 85%
1501 W Hwy, 61, Grand Marais 55604 $1,850 1 / 1 — 1.1 mi 2026-09-16 83%
801 W 5th St, Unit B7, Grand Marais 55604 off market $1,576 3 / 1 900 0.5 mi 2025-10-10 77%
861 5th Ave W, Grand Marais 55604 $1,455 1 / 1 547 0.3 mi 2025-05-14 73%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 111, Grand Marais 55604 off market $2,245 2 / 1 840 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 71%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 211, Grand Marais 55604 off market $2,215 2 / 1 840 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 71%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 301, Grand Marais 55604 off market $2,220 2 / 1 840 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 71%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 101, Grand Marais 55604 off market $2,245 2 / 1 840 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 71%
1501 W Hwy, 61 # 311, Grand Marais 55604 off market $2,220 2 / 1 840 1.1 mi 2026-03-14 71%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highPriced about $75K above our break-even price; negative cash flow at the ask Based on: data: underwriting.break_even_price · AI review
  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 1038 3RD AVE W
  • mediumRural resort-area market with a thin tenant pool and possible seasonal vacancy Based on: data: area.name · AI review
  • mediumListing is pitched as a home that could convert to owner-occupied, so the rental income may be unproven Listing says: the home could be converted to a four bedroom two bath home · AI review
  • mediumTaxes and rental licensing can't be verified, so expenses are uncertain Based on: data: county.tax · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 120 days on market
  • Flexible layout: could be converted to a single four-bedroom home, widening the buyer pool at resale Listing says: With mild alterations, the home could be converted to a four bedroom two bath home. · AI review
  • Upper 2-bed rent range has upside in our estimate Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review
  • Newer 2019 build, so major systems and roof should be young Based on: data: listing.year_built · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • Are both units rented now? What are the rents, lease terms and lease end dates?
  • Who pays heat, electric, water and sewer? Are the units separately metered?
  • What are the actual property taxes, and what would the bill be for a non-homestead investor?
  • Is the heat one boiler for both units or separate zones? What does the heating cost per year?
  • Is the unit legally licensed as a duplex in Grand Marais? Is short-term rental allowed or not?
  • Why was the price reduced, and has the seller considered offers?

Bottom line

A newer, low-maintenance duplex, but at $489K it loses money every month, so it only works at a much lower price. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2026. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$4,296
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,272
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. base rate8% / 8%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-06-07 (120 days); down $38,500 (7.3%) from the first ask of $527,500.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$489,000
Price changed$499,000
Listed$527,500

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex
Property tax, 2026$4,296
CountyCook County
Parcel number80-060-09=0609

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Grand Marais on rental licensing before you buy.