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1195 Bush Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 2,600 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Dayton's Bluff · View the listing ↗

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Photos courtesy of Edina Realty, Inc., via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$420,000
2 units · $210K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$146
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$3,650/mo
medium confidence
Break-even price
$392,502
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 2024 new-build up/down duplex with two 3-bed, 1-bath units, in-unit laundry and a 2-car garage. The photos show clean, builder-grade finishes, so near-term repairs should be light. The numbers are the issue. At $420K our estimate of $1,825 per unit gives about -$146/month and a 6.0% cap rate, and break-even is near $393K. It has sat 200 days, so there is room to negotiate. The listing pitches it to owner-occupants, and no rents are stated, so it's a buy-to-live-in or a price-cut story, not a cash-flow story. Before a showing, confirm the rental license status, the first CofO date for the rent-cap exemption, and what the $373 in assessments covers.

Things to consider

  1. Cash flow is negative at asking At our estimated $1,825 per unit, the deal loses about $146 a month, and break-even is near $393K. A price cut is needed for it to work as a pure rental.
  2. Owner-occupant angle is the real use case Living in one unit and renting the other cuts the housing cost, but check the lender's rules and the rent you can get for the other unit.Listing says: “Ideal opportunity for an owner-occupant, including those seeking to offset housing costs.”
  3. Rental license and CofO status are unclear No rental certificate is on file. You can't rent legally without it, and it affects the rent-cap exemption.
  4. New build lowers early repair costs Reserves can be lower for the first several years, but a warranty and closed permits are what protect you.Listing says: “the benefits of low-maintenance new construction”
  5. Taxes are low on paper but may rise The 2026 tax bill is $3,885, but the county market value is $530K. Check how the tax is set and whether it will go up.
  6. 200 days on market gives leverage Long listings often mean the price is too high. Use that to push toward the break-even price.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 7Plus

Fiber-cement-style siding and trim look new and clean on the front and back, with a covered front porch and two front entries.

Listing photo 4
2 of 7Plus

Kitchen has white cabinets, stainless appliances and a gas range. Finishes look new and builder-grade.

Listing photo 2
3 of 7Plus

Vinyl plank flooring and recessed lighting appear new and durable for rental turnover.

Listing photo 6
4 of 7Check

Stacked washer/dryer and a mechanical closet appear to be in the unit, so each unit may have its own heat and water heater. Confirm the metering.

Listing photo 10
5 of 7Plus

Two electric meters and two rear entries appear on the back wall, which is consistent with a 2-unit building.

Listing photo 9
6 of 7Check

Bedroom has carpet, which is more wear-prone than the plank floors elsewhere.

Listing photo 1
7 of 7Check

No photos of the garage, the exterior of the roof or the upper unit's layout. Only one bedroom is shown.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneNew construction, low maintenanceListing says: the benefits of low-maintenance new construction

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$420,000
Cash to close
$96,600
Price per unit
$210,000
GRM
9.6

Each month

Cash flow
−$146/mo
Cash-on-cash
−1.8%
Cap rate
6.0%
DSCR
0.93×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$392,502
Rent that breaks even
$3,838/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.63M vs $757K
Cash flow turns positive
year 4

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$3,650
Vacancy (6%)−$219
Collected$3,431
Property tax Public record−$324
Insurance Estimate−$204
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$292
Capital reserve (8% of rent)−$292
Net operating income$2,089
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$2,235
Cash flow−$146
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$284

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,625,587
Your equity when you sell
$958,283

Sells for $1,019,450 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($61,167). Rent paid down $336,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$667,304

$354,223 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$756,828
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$735,344

$96,600 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$21,484

$3,129 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $868,759 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.63M, stocks $757K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

3 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,825/mo · range $1,625–$2,025

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
Ross Ave, Unit 1090, Saint Paul 55106 $1,910 3 / 1 — 0.2 mi 2026-09-02 94%
1428 Case Ave E, Unit 4, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,540 3 / 1 — 0.6 mi 2026-09-03 93%
880 Wilson Ave, Saint Paul 55106 $1,425 3 / 1 — 1.0 mi 2026-07-21 92%
222 Maple St, Apt 1, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,400 3 / 1 — 1.0 mi 2024-01-02 92%
1237 7th St E, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,595 3 / 1 1,600 0.1 mi 2026-06-16 91%
1237 7th St E, Unit 1, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,595 3 / 1 1,600 0.1 mi 2026-06-26 91%
1295-1297 Euclid St, Saint Paul 55106 off market $2,100 3 / 1.5 1,642 0.7 mi 2026-07-14 88%
786 7th St E, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,599 3 / 1 1,300 0.9 mi 2026-06-22 87%
1426 Case Ave E, Unit 2, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,495 3 / 1 1,100 0.6 mi 2026-05-21 85%
1430 Case Ave E, Unit 1, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,495 3 / 1 1,100 0.6 mi 2026-08-26 85%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highPriced above what rents support: negative cash flow at asking Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
  • mediumNo rental certificate (CofO) on file in the city's data. Ask whether the building is licensed as a rental and when it was last inspected. Public record: St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential: no record for 1195 BUSH AVE (dataset last updated mid-2025)
  • mediumBought for $35,500 in Dec 2023; asking is 1083% more 33 months later. Ask what was done to justify the jump. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 282922440144: last sale 2023-12-29, $35,500
  • mediumLand bought for $35,500 in Dec 2023, so the price is mostly builder margin; check what permits and costs were involved Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review
  • mediumMarketed to owner-occupants, with no rents or rent roll given; as an investment, income is unproven Listing says: Ideal opportunity for an owner-occupant, including those seeking to offset housing costs. · AI review
  • low$373 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 282922440144: special assessments (payable 2026) = $372.72
  • lowClose to I-94 at about 1.4 km; check noise and area demand Based on: data: highway.distance_m · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 200 days on market
  • New construction should mean low repairs and reserves in the early years Listing says: the benefits of low-maintenance new construction · AI review
  • In-unit washer/dryer in each unit supports rents and tenant retention Listing says: in-unit washer and dryer · AI review
  • Built after 2004, so St. Paul's rent cap likely doesn't apply, if the CofO date confirms it Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review
  • Garage parking adds appeal for 3-bed tenants Listing says: Property includes a 2-car garage · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What is the first CofO date, and is the building licensed as a rental with the city?
  • What are the $373 in special assessments for, and are they paid at closing?
  • Is there a builder warranty, and do the permits and final inspections show as closed?
  • Why has it sat 200 days, and has the price been cut?
  • Is each unit separately metered for gas and electric, and what are heating and cooling like (central, one system or two)?
  • Would the seller consider a lower price, given that our break-even is near $385K?

Bottom line

Clean new-build duplex, but at $420K it loses money as a rental, so it works only as an owner-occupant buy or with a real price cut. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$3,885
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,450
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. base rate8% / 8%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-03-19 (200 days, relisted 1×); last sold for $129,000 on 2003-10-21.

DateEventPrice
Relisted$420,000
Removed—
Listed$420,000
Sold public record$129,000
Sold public record$100,000
Sold public record$34,570
Sold public record$35,500

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built2024
Market value (2026)$530,300
Property tax, payable 2026$3,885
Special assessments$373
Homesteadno
Last sale2023-12-29 · $35,500

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

No record in St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential (dataset last updated mid-2025).

Nearest highway

I 94, about 1430 m away.

Crime in Dayton's Bluff

970 incidents in the last 12 months (52 per 1,000 residents), −6% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.