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1400 Arlington Ave E

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath and 2 bed / 1 bath · 2,048 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Greater East Side · View the listing ↗

Overpriced

Photos courtesy of RE/MAX ADVANTAGE PLUS, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$300,000
2 units · $150K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$477
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,800/mo
high confidence
Break-even price
$210,407
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a clean-looking 3-bed/2-bed up/down on St. Paul's East Side, listed two days at $300K. Our numbers don't work at the ask: about -$477/mo cash flow at 20% down and a 4.5% cap rate, with break-even near $210K. The investor tax bill is $7,698 against a $254,500 sale in 2018, and that drives most of the gap. The listing gives no rents or lease status, so ask for the rent roll first. Rents are capped at 3% a year for sitting tenants, so a low current rent can't be fixed fast. The rental license shows as pending with an old expiry date. Only worth a showing if the seller moves well toward the low $200Ks or the rents beat our estimates.

Things to consider

  1. Numbers fail at the ask At $300K the model shows negative monthly cash flow and a 4.5% cap rate. The break-even price is far below the ask.
  2. Investor tax bill is high Taxes are the biggest drag on income. Verify the figure, since the listing may show a lower homestead amount.
  3. Rents unknown and capped With no stated rents and a 3% annual cap on sitting tenants, low current rents will be slow to move toward market.
  4. Mechanical systems look good Newer separate furnaces and water heaters cut near-term capital needs and let tenants carry their own heat.Listing says: “Each unit has its own newer, high-efficiency furnace and water heater”
  5. Licensing needs confirming A pending or lapsed rental license can delay getting tenants or trigger city inspection orders.

From the photos

Listing photo 10
1 of 7Plus

Two Goodman high-efficiency furnaces with PVC venting appear to serve the two units, which supports the separate-systems claim.

Listing photo 9
2 of 7Plus

Two separate breaker panels appear to be marked 1 and 2, consistent with separate unit metering. They look newer than fuses.

Listing photo 5
3 of 7Check

Kitchens appear to have older white cabinets, black appliances and dark counters. They look serviceable but dated, not renovated.

Listing photo 2
4 of 7Plus

Laminate or hardwood-look flooring appears in good shape in the living areas and bedrooms.

Listing photo 8
5 of 7Check

Bathroom has an older tile floor and a basic vanity with an integrated top. It looks dated but clean.

Listing photo 1
6 of 7Check

Stucco exterior with a front staircase and a tuck-under garage. Stucco, the roof and the steps could not be judged from this view, so get a roof and moisture inspection.

Listing photo 9
7 of 7Check

Basement walls are painted block with exposed pipes and wiring. No visible water staining in the shot, but check for moisture.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneNewer high-efficiency furnaces and water heaters, one set per unitListing says: Each unit has its own newer, high-efficiency furnace and water heater
  • doneRefinished hardwood floorsListing says: beautifully refinished hardwood floors

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$300,000
Cash to close
$69,000
Price per unit
$150,000
GRM
8.9

Each month

Cash flow
−$477/mo
Cash-on-cash
−8.3%
Cap rate
4.5%
DSCR
0.70×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$210,407
Rent that breaks even
$3,411/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$767K vs $773K
Cash flow turns positive
year 16

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,800
Vacancy (6%)−$168
Collected$2,632
Property tax Public record−$641
Insurance Estimate−$193
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$224
Capital reserve (8% of rent)−$224
Net operating income$1,120
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,597
Cash flow−$477
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$203

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$766,631
Your equity when you sell
$684,488

Sells for $728,179 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($43,691). Rent paid down $240,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$82,143

$59,206 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$773,356
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$525,246

$69,000 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$248,110

$46,367 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

Stocks come out $6,725 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $767K, stocks $773K. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

3 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,725/mo · range $1,600–$1,875

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
1954-1956 Hazelwood St N, Maplewood 55109 off market $1,895 3 / 1 1,700 1.1 mi 2025-07-16 94%
1672 Manton St, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,720 3 / 1 — 0.5 mi 2026-06-10 93%
1237 7th St E, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,595 3 / 1 1,600 1.3 mi 2026-06-16 93%
1237 7th St E, Unit 1, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,595 3 / 1 1,600 1.3 mi 2026-06-26 93%
1428 Case Ave E, Unit 4, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,540 3 / 1 — 1.0 mi 2026-09-03 92%
Ross Ave, Unit 1090, Saint Paul 55106 $1,910 3 / 1 — 1.5 mi 2026-09-02 92%
1432 Case Ave E, Unit 3, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,495 3 / 1 1,100 1.0 mi 2026-08-03 87%
1430 Case Ave E, Unit 1, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,495 3 / 1 1,100 1.0 mi 2026-08-26 87%
1426 Case Ave E, Unit 2, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,495 3 / 1 1,100 1.0 mi 2026-05-21 87%
1426 Case Ave E, Unit 3, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,495 3 / 1 1,100 1.0 mi 2026-04-22 87%

2 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,075/mo · range $1,025–$1,150

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
1288 Hazelwood St, Apt 301, Saint Paul 55106 off market $1,195 2 / 1 — 0.5 mi 2025-10-28 93%
1077 Van Dyke St, Apt 103, Saint Paul 55119 $995 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-10-05 92%
1077 Van Dyke St, Apt 206, Saint Paul 55119 off market $1,115 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-06-19 92%
1851 Magnolia Ave E, Apt 104, Saint Paul 55119 off market $1,095 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-09-30 92%
1846 Magnolia Ave E, Apt 104, Saint Paul 55119 $1,135 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-10-05 92%
1067 Van Dyke St, Apt 101, Saint Paul 55119 off market $1,095 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-04-15 92%
1865 Magnolia Ave E, Apt 201, Saint Paul 55119 $995 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-10-05 92%
1067 Van Dyke St, Apt 304, Saint Paul 55119 off market $995 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-02-15 92%
1858 Magnolia Ave E, Apt 203, Saint Paul 55119 off market $995 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-08-19 92%
1851 Magnolia Ave E, Apt 208, Saint Paul 55119 off market $995 2 / 1 — 1.2 mi 2026-01-28 92%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highTaxes at the investor (non-homestead) rate are heavy relative to the rents this building can support. Based on: data: county.tax · AI review
  • mediumRental license shows Pending with an expiry date in 2025. Confirm it is current and valid for two units. Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review
  • mediumPrice is $45K above the 2018 sale price and well above our break-even price. Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review
  • low$432 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 222922320002: special assessments (payable 2026) = $432.50

Opportunities

  • Separate furnaces and water heaters mean tenants can likely pay their own heat, keeping owner utilities low. Listing says: Each unit has its own newer, high-efficiency furnace and water heater · AI review
  • Washer/dryer hookups and a tandem tuck-under garage help with rentability. Listing says: washer/dryer hookups, and a 2-car tandem tuck-under garage · AI review
  • Listed only two days, but a price cut or negotiation is plausible given the numbers. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease end dates, and are any tenants month-to-month?
  • Who pays heat, electric, water and trash in each unit?
  • What are the $432 special assessments for, and does the seller pay them off at closing?
  • Is the 2-unit rental license current, and when was the last city inspection?
  • Are the furnaces and water heaters dated, and do you have receipts?
  • Who occupies the garage, and is it shared between the units?

Bottom line

Tidy, updated-looking duplex, but at $300K the taxes and price leave it cash-negative, so it only works at a much lower price. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$7,698
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,312
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. base rate8% / 8%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-10-03 (2 days); last sold for $254,500 on 2019-01-18.

DateEventPrice
Listed$300,000
Sold$254,500
Sold$259,900
Listed$259,900
Sold public record$64,663
Removed$100,000
Price changed$100,000
Price changed$110,000
Listed$125,000
Sold public record$248,000
Sold public record$101,000
Sold public record$101,000

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1960
Market value (2026)$366,100
Property tax, payable 2026$7,698
Special assessments$432
Homesteadno
Last sale2018-12-07 · $254,500

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

Residential 2 Units: 2 unit(s), A, status pending, renews 2025-07-16.

Nearest highway

MN 36, about 3007 m away.

Crime in Greater East Side

1,138 incidents in the last 12 months (37 per 1,000 residents), −13% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.