1411 Upton Ave N

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 2,288 sq ft

Minneapolis, MN · Willard - Hay · View the listing ↗

Cash flows

15 photos

Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price: $269,900
Monthly cash flow: $974
Estimated rent: $3,750/mo
Break-even price: $452,899

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a Minneapolis up/down duplex with identical 3-bed/1-bath units at $269,900, and it has sat on the market 311 days. Our estimate is about $1,900 per unit, and at asking that gives roughly $1,013/month cash flow and a 10.9% cap rate. That looks strong, but it rests on our rent estimates, not real leases, because the listing states no rents. The upper is freshly done in the photos, while the lower looks lived in and dated, so first ask what the lower tenant pays and on what lease. A 311-day listing at this yield means something is off: check the inspection issues, the lower unit's condition and the neighborhood. Worth a showing only if the rent roll supports roughly $1,900 per unit.

Things to consider

Real rents are unknown The cash flow figure uses our $1,900 per unit estimate. If the lower unit rents for less, the returns drop fast.
311 days on market A property with this projected yield should sell faster. Find out whether there are condition, price or neighborhood issues.
Lower unit is dated and occupied Expect turnover costs and possible updates before it can reach market rent.From photo 9
Systems are undocumented A 1921 building can carry large costs for roof, boiler or furnace, wiring and plumbing that photos don't show.
Rental license is active The city lists two licensed units at Tier 1, which supports legal rental use.

From the photos

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

doneUpper unit newly remodeledListing says: The upper unit is vacant, newly remodeled, and move in ready

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price: $269,900
Cash to close: $62,077
Price per unit: $134,950
GRM: 6.0

Each month

Cash flow: $974/mo
Cash-on-cash: 18.8%
Cap rate: 10.7%
DSCR: 1.68×

Break-even

Price that breaks even: $452,899
Rent that breaks even: $2,501/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks: $2.69M vs $473K
Cash flow turns positive: year 1

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent	$3,750
Vacancy (6%)	−$225
Collected	$3,525
Property tax Public record	−$87
Insurance Estimate	−$198
Water, sewer, trash Estimate	−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)	−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)	−$300
Capital reserve (8% of rent)	−$300
Net operating income	$2,411
Mortgage (principal + interest)	−$1,437
Cash flow	$974
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)	$183

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$2,689,647

Your equity when you sell: $615,811
Rental profits, invested at 7%: $2,073,836

Same money in stocks$472,546

Cash to close, invested at 7%: $472,546

The building comes out $2,217,101 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $2.69M, stocks $473K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

3 bed estimate $1,875/mo · range $1,675–$2,175 · 7 rentals within 1.5 mi

Address	Rent	Bd / Ba	Sq ft	Distance	Listed	Type
910 Oliver Ave N Apt 5, Minneapolis	$1,790	3 / 1	1,101	0.6 mi	2026-07-28	Apartment
2112 5th Ave N Unit 1, Minneapolis	$1,595	3 / 1	1,200	0.8 mi	—	Apartment
1406 21st Ave N Unit 1, Minneapolis	$2,065	3 / 1	—	0.9 mi	2025-07-23	Duplex triplex
816 21st Ave N Apt 336, Minneapolis	$2,065	3 / 1	1,500	1.3 mi	2026-07-14	Apartment
816 21st Ave N Apt 107, Minneapolis	$1,788	3 / 1	1,500	1.3 mi	2026-07-14	Apartment
3023 Queen Ave N, Minneapolis	$1,450	3 / 1	820	1.3 mi	2026-07-31	Duplex triplex
3045 Grimes Ave N, Robbinsdale	$1,850	3 / 1	1,400	1.4 mi	2026-09-15	Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

mediumLong time on market at a strong projected yield suggests a hidden problem or overpricing relative to real rents. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review
mediumNo current rents or lease terms for the occupied lower unit. Listing says: Both the upper and lower units feature identical layouts with 3 bedrooms and a full bath each. · AI review
low$67 in special assessments on the current tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Hennepin County parcel 1702924430028: special assessments (current) = $67.32
lowLast sold at $165K in 2019, so the ask is well above the seller's purchase price. Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review

Opportunities

Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 314 days on market
Upper is vacant and remodeled, so it can be rented at market right away or owner-occupied. Listing says: The upper unit is vacant, newly remodeled, and move in ready or easily rentable if preferred! · AI review
No rent cap in Minneapolis, so rents can follow the market. Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review
Lower unit kitchen and bath look dated, so a refresh could lift rent when it turns over. Based on: photo 9 · AI review

Questions for the agent

What does the lower tenant pay, and what are the lease end and deposit terms?
Why has it been listed 311 days, and have there been price cuts or failed deals?
How old are the roof, furnace, water heater and electrical panel?
Is heat one furnace or separate for each unit, and who pays which utilities?
What are the $67 special assessments for?
Is the upper unit's remodel permitted, and what work was done?

Bottom line

Numbers look strong on paper, but with no stated rents and 311 days on market, verify the lower rent and the building's condition before getting excited. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordHennepin County record, current payable year (non-homestead)	$1,042
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote	$2,372
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid	$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent	$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal	$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. base rate	8% / 8%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2025-11-25 (314 days); down $10,000 (3.6%) from the first ask of $279,900; last sold for $151,212 on 2019-08-12.

Date	Event	Price
2026-05-14	Price changed	$269,900
2025-11-25	Listed	$279,900
2019-08-12	Sold public record	$151,212
2019-08-08	Sold public record	$165,000
2014-11-07	Sold	$149,900
2014-09-04	Listed	$149,900
2009-02-26	Sold public record	$135,000
2006-11-28	Sold public record	$245,000

County record Public record

Recorded as	duplex
Living units	2
Year built	1921
Market value (2026)	$270,400
Property tax	$1,042
Special assessments	$67
Homestead	no
Last sale	2019-08-01 · $165,000

Source: Hennepin County parcel records.

City rental license

CHOWN: 2 unit(s), Tier 1, status active, renews 2027-03-01.

Nearest highway

I 94, about 2149 m away.

Crime in Willard - Hay

426 incidents in the last 12 months (48 per 1,000 residents), +12% vs. the year before. Minneapolis police incidents, all reported offenses (definitions differ from St. Paul's, so don't compare across cities).