1598 E Shore Dr

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1.5 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 4,120 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Payne – Phalen (Railroad Island) · View the listing ↗

Far off

40 photos

Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price: $600,000
Monthly cash flow: −$1,838
Estimated rent: $3,600/mo
Break-even price: $254,724

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

From the listing

Rare opportunity to own a renovated Lake Phalen duplex with established rental income and tenants already in place! Enjoy beautiful lakeside views from the spacious deck and charming front porch, all just steps from Lake Phalen's walking and biking trails, beaches, golf course, and recreation. The property offers generous living spaces, large bedrooms, multiple kitchens, separate entrances, laundry, ample storage, and a large 3-car garage. Leases are currently in place through May 31, 2027, providing immediate income for the next owner. Sellers are motivated and willing to contribute up to $15,000 toward buyer closing costs with an acceptable offer. An excellent opportunity for an investor looking for a well-located, income-producing property with long-term potential!

Description from Realtor.com, MLS #7147699. Believed reliable but not guaranteed; confirm with the listing agent. View on Realtor.com ↗

First look

This is a big 1900-built duplex on Lake Phalen asking $600K, and the numbers don't work. Our rent estimates are about $1,800 per unit, roughly $3,600 a month combined, and at 20% down the deal loses about $1,838 a month with a 2.7% cap rate. Break-even price is about $255K, so you'd be paying for the lake location and the lot, not the income. The listing gives no rents, no taxes and no utility info, and we couldn't match a county parcel, so unit count and taxes are unverified. Leases run through May 2027, which gives stable income but also means St. Paul's 3% cap limits rent growth. Only worth a showing if you want a lakeside owner-occupant play or can get the price far down. The $15K closing credit is nice but small against a $345K gap.

Things to consider

Price is far above what the rents support At ask, our model loses about $1,840 a month, with a break-even near $255K. The gap can't be fixed with rent growth.
Rents and lease terms are unstated You can't verify income without a rent roll. Leases through May 2027 give stability but cap near-term upside under the 3% rule.Listing says: “Leases are currently in place through May 31, 2027, providing immediate income for the next owner.”
Taxes and unit count unverified We couldn't match a county parcel, so taxes could be higher for an investor than assumed, and the duplex status needs confirming.
Updates look cosmetic and dated, not recent Despite the 'renovated' label, kitchens and baths look 1990s-era. Budget for updates before expecting higher rents.From photo 9
Lower unit legality and heat setup An unlicensed unit or owner-paid heat would hurt income and could create compliance issues.Listing says: “separate entrances, laundry, ample storage”

From the photos

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

doneProperty described as renovated; no specifics on what was updated or whenListing says: Rare opportunity to own a renovated Lake Phalen duplex with established rental income

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price: $600,000
Cash to close: $138,000
Price per unit: $300,000
GRM: 13.9

Each month

Cash flow: −$1,838/mo
Cash-on-cash: −16.0%
Cap rate: 2.7%
DSCR: 0.42×

Break-even

Price that breaks even: $254,724
Rent that breaks even: $5,987/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks: $1.37M vs $2.69M
Cash flow turns positive: not within 30 years

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent	$3,600
Vacancy (6%)	−$216
Collected	$3,384
Property tax Listing	−$927
Insurance Estimate	−$259
Water, sewer, trash Estimate	−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)	−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)	−$288
Capital reserve (9% of rent)	−$324
Net operating income	$1,356
Mortgage (principal + interest)	−$3,193
Cash flow	−$1,838
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)	$406

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,368,976

Your equity when you sell: $1,368,976
Rental profits, invested at 7%: $0

Same money in stocks$2,691,918

Cash to close, invested at 7%: $1,050,491
Monthly shortfalls, invested: $1,641,427

Stocks come out $1,322,942 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.37M, stocks $2.69M. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

3 bed estimate $1,800/mo · range $1,525–$2,025 · 15 rentals within 3 mi

Address	Rent	Bd / Ba	Sq ft	Distance	Listed	Type
736 Geranium Ave E Apt A, Saint Paul	$1,600	3 / 1	—	1.3 mi	2026-08-28	Multi family
584 Magnolia Ave E Unit 1, Saint Paul	$1,900	3 / 2	—	1.6 mi	2026-07-15	Multi family
Ross Ave Unit 1090, Saint Paul	$1,910	3 / 1	—	1.7 mi	2026-09-02	Apartment
1428 7th St E, Saint Paul	$1,871	3 / 2	1,205	1.7 mi	2025-01-03	Apartment
1124 Minnehaha Ave E Apt 1, Saint Paul	$1,750	3 / 1	832	1.9 mi	2026-03-25	Apartment
1465 Minnehaha Ave E Apt 1, Saint Paul	$1,200	3 / 1	950	1.9 mi	—	Apartment
586 Reaney Ave E Unit 586U2, Saint Paul	$1,614	3 / 1	1,100	2.2 mi	2023-06-04	Apartment
595 Minnehaha Ave E, Saint Paul	$1,155	3 / 1	830	2.2 mi	2025-01-03	Apartment
828 Hazel St N, Saint Paul	$1,600	3 / 2	—	2.3 mi	2025-01-03	Apartment
1056 3rd St E, Saint Paul	$1,695	3 / 1	925	2.3 mi	2026-09-17	Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

highNo rents or lease terms given, only that leases exist. Rent roll needed to confirm income. Listing says: Leases are currently in place through May 31, 2027, providing immediate income for the next owner. · AI review
mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 1598 SHORE DR E
mediumAsking is $345,276 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($254,724) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $600,000 vs. break-even $254,724
mediumSeller offering $15K toward closing costs signals the price is hard to support. Listing says: Sellers are motivated and willing to contribute up to $15,000 toward buyer closing costs · AI review
mediumLower-level unit may not be legal or licensed. Photos show a basement-style kitchen with small high windows. Based on: photo 5 · AI review
mediumBaseboard hot-water heat suggests a boiler. Unclear if one system serves both units and who pays. Based on: photo 3 · AI review

Opportunities

Lakeside location near trails, beaches and golf supports tenant demand and long-term land value. Listing says: just steps from Lake Phalen's walking and biking trails, beaches, golf course, and recreation · AI review
Large 3-car garage could be rented separately or help attract tenants. Listing says: a large 3-car garage · AI review

Questions for the agent

What are the current rents, deposits and lease start dates for each unit?
Is the lower unit a licensed, legal unit with egress? Is the St. Paul rental license current?
How is heat set up: one boiler or separate? Who pays heat, water and electric?
What was renovated, when, and were permits pulled? Age of roof, boiler and electrical panel?
What are the real property taxes, and are there any special assessments?
Is the garage included for both tenants or reserved for one?

Bottom line

Pretty lakeside duplex, but at $600K it loses nearly $1,840 a month on our numbers; it only works well below roughly $255K. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2026. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.	$11,122
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote	$3,113
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid	$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent	$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal	$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1900: +1 pt capital reserve	8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-09-21 (14 days); last sold for $515,000 on 2021-08-03.

Date	Event	Price
2026-09-21	Listed	$600,000
2021-08-03	Sold	$515,000
2021-06-21	Listed	$499,900
2021-06-21	Removed	$499,900
2021-06-17	Listed	$499,900
2009-03-26	Sold	$302,000
2008-11-03	Listed	$309,000

From the listing Listing

Listed as	duplex up and down
Property tax, 2026	$11,122
County	Ramsey
Parcel number	212922110091

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

City rental certificate (CofO)

No record in St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential (dataset last updated mid-2025).

Nearest highway

MN 36, about 2470 m away.

Crime in Payne – Phalen

1,695 incidents in the last 12 months (51 per 1,000 residents), −10% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.