St. Paul › Union Park

1857 Carroll Ave

Fourplex · 4 units: mix unknown ×4 unit split estimated · 6,182 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Union Park (Merriam Park, Snelling-Hamline, Lexington-Hamline) · View the listing ↗

Far off

21 photos

Photos courtesy of NRT-Minnesota (CB Burnet), via Realtor.com.

Asking price: $825,900
Monthly cash flow: −$2,093
Estimated rent: $6,000/mo
Break-even price: $432,699

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a big 1900 building with 16 bedrooms, and the city rental license says it is a pending Residential Sober House with 5 units, while the county and listing say 4. At $825,900 our numbers show about -$2,093 a month and a 3.3% cap rate, and break-even is near $433K, so the ask doesn't work on ordinary rents. The listing gives no rents, no expenses and no unit mix, and the price only makes sense if the sober-house income is real and transferable. First, get the rent roll, trailing-12 expenses and the license and zoning status. Photos show a lived-in, owner-style setup with mixed finishes, so I would not show it until the income is documented.

Things to consider

Income is unverified There are no rents and only projected rentals. Without a rent roll the price can't be supported, and our estimate of $1,500 per unit is far too low for an $826K price.Listing says: “Seller has expense numbers any unit rentals would be projected.”
Use and licensing risk A pending sober-house license for 5 units differs from the 4 shown. Losing the license or being unable to rent by the room changes the value a lot.
Numbers fail at ask Cash flow is about -$2,093 a month at a 3.3% cap rate. Break-even price is roughly $433K.
Heavy wear in a 16-bedroom house Student or group housing means more turnover and repair costs. Reserves should be high.Listing says: “The building features 4 separate units with a total of 16 bedrooms.”
Old building systems unknown A 1900 build with window AC units and an unseen boiler, wiring and roof needs a full inspection before pricing repairs.From photo 2

From the photos

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

doneProperty described as maintained and updated (no specifics or dates given)Listing says: Property has been maintained and updated.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price: $825,900
Cash to close: $189,957
Price per unit: $206,475
GRM: 11.5

Each month

Cash flow: −$2,093/mo
Cash-on-cash: −13.2%
Cap rate: 3.3%
DSCR: 0.52×

Break-even

Price that breaks even: $432,699
Rent that breaks even: $8,718/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks: $1.89M vs $3.06M
Cash flow turns positive: year 28

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent	$6,000
Vacancy (6%)	−$360
Collected	$5,640
Property tax Estimate	−$1,445
Insurance Estimate	−$472
Water, sewer, trash Estimate	−$340
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)	−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)	−$480
Capital reserve (9% of rent)	−$540
Net operating income	$2,303
Mortgage (principal + interest)	−$4,396
Cash flow	−$2,093
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)	$559

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,888,235

Your equity when you sell: $1,884,395
Rental profits, invested at 7%: $3,840

Same money in stocks$3,063,646

Cash to close, invested at 7%: $1,446,001
Monthly shortfalls, invested: $1,617,645

Stocks come out $1,175,411 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.89M, stocks $3.06M. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

None bed estimate $1,500/mo · range $1,275–$1,700 · 23 rentals within 0.75 mi

Address	Rent	Bd / Ba	Sq ft	Distance	Listed	Type
1938 Roblyn Ave Apt 2, Saint Paul	$1,350	2 / 1	850	0.2 mi	2026-06-10	Apartment
1880 Marshall Ave, Saint Paul	$1,599	2 / 1	822	0.2 mi	2024-06-11	Apartment
1765 Carroll Ave, Saint Paul	$1,395	2 / 1	900	0.2 mi	2025-05-08	Apartment
405 Fairview Ave N, Saint Paul	$1,055	2 / 1	725	0.2 mi	2025-01-03	Apartment
1939 Marshall Ave, Saint Paul	$1,400	2 / 1	873	0.2 mi	2025-01-03	Apartment
441 Lynnhurst Ave W, Saint Paul	$1,289	2 / 1	880	0.3 mi	2024-04-15	Apartment
1899 Selby Ave, Saint Paul	$1,800	2 / 1	1,200	0.3 mi	2026-07-08	Apartment
483 W Lynnhurst Ave Unit 18, Saint Paul	$1,249	2 / 1	1,250	0.3 mi	—	Apartment
293 Wilder St N, Saint Paul	$1,500	2 / 1	—	0.4 mi	2026-09-26	Apartment
1845 University Ave W, Saint Paul	$1,675	2 / 2	950	0.4 mi	2026-08-18	Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

highRental license is a Residential Sober House, status Pending, listing 5 units vs 4 in the listing. A buyer may not be able to run it as an ordinary rental or keep that use. Confirm what is permitted and whether the license transfers. Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review
highNo rents or income stated. Seller offers 'expense numbers' and only projected rentals, so there is no verified income. Listing says: Seller has expense numbers any unit rentals would be projected. · AI review
medium$1,411 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 332923340045: special assessments (payable 2026) = $1,410.74
mediumAbout 125 m from I 94: traffic noise usually costs $50–100/month in rent. Based on: OpenStreetMap: nearest motorway (I 94) at 125 m
mediumAsking is $393,201 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($432,699) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $825,900 vs. break-even $432,699
mediumStudent rental pitch for 16 bedrooms: rooming-house rules, occupancy limits and egress for each bedroom need checking before counting rooms. Listing says: Great potential for student rental or continued use as a Sober House. · AI review
mediumPrice is far above the county market value of $689,200, and the numbers only work near $389K. Based on: data: county.market_value · AI review

Opportunities

The seller bought for $340,000 in Apr 2013, so they can take a lower offer and still come out well ahead. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 332923340045: last sale 2013-04-12, $340,000
Seller bought in 2013 for $340K, so there is room to negotiate hard. Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review
Large building near colleges could support by-the-room rentals if zoning and licensing allow. Listing says: 4-plex centrally located with east access to freeways, shopping and the area colleges. · AI review
Original character details (stained glass, woodwork, fireplace) are intact and support appeal. Based on: photo 5 · AI review

Questions for the agent

Who operates the sober house, and is the business or license transferring with the sale? Is there a lease or master lease?
What are the current rents or per-bed fees, and can I see the rent roll and trailing-12 expenses?
Is it 4 or 5 units, and what is the bed count in each? Are all bedrooms legal with egress?
What does the pending license status mean, and are there any city orders or inspection issues?
What are the $1,411 special assessments for?
How is it heated (boiler or forced air), how many meters are there, and what do utilities cost?

Bottom line

At $826K with no stated rents and a pending sober-house license, this is a business purchase priced far above what ordinary rents support. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Estimateestimate. No tax record found; 2.1% of price.	$17,344
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote	$5,660
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid	$340
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent	$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal	$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1900: +1 pt capital reserve	8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-09-16 (19 days).

Date	Event	Price
2026-09-16	Listed	$825,900

County record Public record

Recorded as	—
Living units	4
Year built	1900
Market value (2026)	$689,200
Property tax, payable 2026	—
Special assessments	$1,411
Homestead	no
Last sale	2013-04-12 · $340,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

Residential Sober House: 5 unit(s), B, status pending, renews 2028-08-13.

Nearest highway

I 94, about 125 m away.

Crime in Union Park

1,603 incidents in the last 12 months (83 per 1,000 residents), −27% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events. Union Park's incident count includes the Midway retail corridor, which inflates the per-resident rate.