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2631 Girard Ave N

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath and 2 bed / 1 bath unit split estimated · 1,709 sq ft

Minneapolis, MN · Jordan · View the listing ↗

Cash flows

Photos courtesy of Keller Williams Realty, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$289,900
2 units · $145K per unit
Monthly cash flow
$397
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$3,525/mo
medium confidence
Break-even price
$364,549
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a freshly flipped Jordan duplex: a 2-bed down and 3-bed up, priced at $289,900 after the seller paid $195,000 in 2024. Our numbers show it cash flowing about $397/month with 20% down, an 8.0% cap rate and no rent cap, so it leaves some cushion at today's rates, though not a lot. The photos show new flooring, kitchens and paint, but the description gives no rents, no lease status and no mention of permits or mechanicals. Before a showing, ask what was done to justify the jump, whether the work was permitted, and the age of the furnace, roof and electrical panel. Stucco and a 1900 build also call for a good inspection. It's worth a look as long as the inspection and rents hold up.

Things to consider

  1. Price jumped 49% in 25 months A big markup after a cosmetic refresh means you're paying for the flip, not proven income. Verify the scope of work and permits.
  2. Positive cash flow at ask With roughly $397/month at 20% down, a vacancy or repair can still eat much of it. The break-even price is about $364,500, so the ask sits well below it.
  3. Mechanicals and structure are undocumented A 1900 stucco building with only cosmetic photos could hide old wiring, a worn furnace or moisture problems. Budget for a thorough inspection.From photo 1
  4. Taxes are billed as non-homestead The county shows a non-homestead bill of about $4,078, which is what an investor would pay, and it could reset higher after a sale at this price.
  5. Rent estimates are the only income evidence Our mid estimates are $1,950 for the 3-bed and $1,575 for the 2-bed. Confirm actual rents or market comps before relying on them.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 8Check

Exterior is stucco painted dark gray; paint is fresh and hides the surface condition, so cracks or moisture may not be visible

Listing photo 8
2 of 8Plus

Kitchen appears fully new: white shaker cabinets, granite-look counters, stainless appliances, vinyl plank floor

Listing photo 4
3 of 8Plus

Refinished hardwood floors and fresh paint in the living areas look recent

Listing photo 3
4 of 8Plus

Original stair with dark turned balusters appears intact and in good shape, though the treads show wear

Listing photo 2
5 of 8Check

Two entrance doors visible on the front and side, consistent with two units

Listing photo 2
6 of 8Check

Rear upper porch/deck framing is visible; check its condition and that it meets code

Listing photo 1
7 of 8Check

No photos of basement, furnace, water heater, electrical panel, bathrooms or roof, so the mechanicals are undocumented

Listing photo 5
8 of 8Check

Textured ceilings and cosmetic finishes suggest a surface-level refresh rather than a full gut

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneUpdated top to bottom, with recent updates throughoutListing says: Updated from top to bottom, this move-in ready property offers two well-appointed units

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$289,900
Cash to close
$66,677
Price per unit
$144,950
GRM
6.9

Each month

Cash flow
$397/mo
Cash-on-cash
7.2%
Cap rate
8.0%
DSCR
1.26×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$364,549
Rent that breaks even
$3,009/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.86M vs $508K
Cash flow turns positive
year 1

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$3,525
Vacancy (6%)−$212
Collected$3,314
Property tax Public record−$340
Insurance Estimate−$204
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$282
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$317
Net operating income$1,940
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,543
Cash flow$397
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$196

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,859,270
Your equity when you sell
$661,443

Sells for $703,663 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($42,220). Rent paid down $231,920 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$1,197,826

$514,657 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$507,562
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$507,562

$66,677 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

The building comes out $1,351,708 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.86M, stocks $508K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

3 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,950/mo · range $1,775–$2,100

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
1616 Emerson Ave N, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,648 3 / 1 1,600 0.8 mi 2026-04-17 97%
1510 22nd Ave N, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,670 3 / 1 1,500 0.4 mi 2026-05-07 97%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 335, Minneapolis 55411 $2,065 3 / 1 1,500 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 96%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 225, Minneapolis 55411 $2,065 3 / 1 1,500 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 96%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 107, Minneapolis 55411 $1,788 3 / 1 1,500 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 96%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 226, Minneapolis 55411 $2,065 3 / 1 1,500 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 96%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 336, Minneapolis 55411 $2,065 3 / 1 1,500 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 96%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 101, Minneapolis 55411 $2,065 3 / 1 1,500 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 96%
1917 N Newton Ave, Unit 1919, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,850 3 / 1 1,378 0.7 mi 2024-07-20 94%
1917 Newton Ave N, Fl 1, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,840 3 / 1 1,375 0.7 mi 2024-11-04 94%

2 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,575/mo · range $1,325–$1,825

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
1407 N Girard Ave, Unit 2, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,900 2 / 1 1,472 0.9 mi 2026-04-23 95%
1411 N Girard Ave, Unit 1, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,900 2 / 1 1,350 0.9 mi 2026-05-28 94%
3107 Dupont Ave N, Unit 1, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,550 2 / 1 — 0.4 mi 2026-05-28 93%
2935 Aldrich Ave N, Unit 1, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,300 2 / 1 — 0.4 mi 2026-04-24 93%
3318 N Penn Ave, Unit 3, Minneapolis 55412 off market $1,100 2 / 1 — 0.8 mi 2026-04-15 93%
816 21st Ave N, Apt 102, Minneapolis 55411 $1,788 2 / 1 1,249 0.6 mi 2026-07-14 93%
2900 Colfax Ave N, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,345 2 / 1 1,200 0.3 mi 2026-03-06 92%
1812 Golden Valley Rd, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,450 2 / 1 1,120 0.6 mi 2026-07-21 91%
2937-2939 Fremont Ave N, Minneapolis 55411 off market $1,300 2 / 1 1,068 0.3 mi 2025-11-20 91%
3241 N Humboldt Ave, Minneapolis 55412 off market $1,400 2 / 1 1,056 0.5 mi 2026-06-19 90%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highCosmetic flip with no disclosed scope, permits or mechanical ages Listing says: Recent updates provide a fresh, modern feel throughout · AI review
  • mediumBought for $195,000 in Sep 2024; asking is 49% more 25 months later. Ask what was done to justify the jump. Public record: Hennepin County parcel 0902924430178: last sale 2024-09-01, $195,000
  • mediumNo rents or lease status given; may be vacant or tenant-occupied Listing says: allowing for immediate occupancy or leasing · AI review
  • mediumPricing leaves no cash flow cushion at ask Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review

Opportunities

  • No rent cap in Minneapolis, so rents can follow the market Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review
  • Active rental license for 2 units is already in place Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review
  • Only 4 days on market, but the 49% jump over the 2024 sale price gives room to negotiate Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What work was done since the 2024 purchase, and were permits pulled?
  • Are the units vacant or occupied, and what are the rents and lease terms?
  • What are the ages of the furnace(s), water heater(s), roof and electrical panels?
  • Is there one furnace or two, and are the utilities separately metered?
  • Is the rental license transferable, and when was the last city inspection?
  • Are there off-street parking or a garage?

Bottom line

Cleanly flipped duplex with positive cash flow at ask, so the hidden systems and actual rents need to be solid. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordHennepin County record, current payable year (non-homestead)$4,078
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,450
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1900: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-08-04 (62 days); down $35,100 (10.8%) from the first ask of $325,000; last sold for $195,000 on 2024-09-18.

DateEventPrice
Listed$289,900
Removed$299,900
Price changed$299,900
Listed$325,000
Sold$195,000
Listed$199,900
Removed—
Price changed$190,000
Listed$195,000
Sold$75,000
Listed$99,900

County record Public record

Recorded asduplex
Living units2
Year built1900
Market value (2026)$214,700
Property tax$4,078
Special assessmentsnone
Homesteadno
Last sale2024-09-01 · $195,000

Source: Hennepin County parcel records.

City rental license

CHOWN: 2 unit(s), Tier 1, status active, renews 2027-03-01.

Nearest highway

I 94, about 1134 m away.

Crime in Jordan

591 incidents in the last 12 months (69 per 1,000 residents), +4% vs. the year before. Minneapolis police incidents, all reported offenses (definitions differ from St. Paul's, so don't compare across cities).