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2820 12th Ave S

Duplex · 2 units: 4 bed and 3 bed · 4,320 sq ft

Minneapolis, MN · Midtown Phillips · View the listing ↗

Overpriced

Photos courtesy of Exp Realty - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$550,000
2 units · $275K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$808
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$4,250/mo
high confidence
Break-even price
$398,201
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

The listing sells three units, but the county classifies this as a duplex with 2 living units. The three-unit claim, a 3-bed basement unit in a 1916 building, is the first thing to prove. At $550K our underwriting shows about -$808/month and a 4.6% cap rate, with break-even near $398K, so it does not work at ask. Add delinquent taxes, no rental license on file and 149 days on market, and this is a negotiation or a pass. Don't show it until the agent confirms unit count, licensing and the tax payoff.

Things to consider

  1. Unit count and legality The county lists two units but the listing sells three. If the basement is not legal, income and value drop and rental licensing could be a problem.
  2. Price versus cash flow At ask, underwriting shows negative cash flow of about $808 a month. Break-even is near $398K, far below the asking price.
  3. Delinquent taxes and licensing Back taxes and penalties are paid at closing, and an unlicensed building can face fines and delay renting.
  4. Rents are estimates, not documented Large 4-bed units can rent well, but with no rent roll we cannot confirm the income that the price needs.
  5. Flat roof on stucco Flat roofs are costly to replace and leak-prone. Roof age and moisture are top inspection items.From photo 1
  6. Seller flip signal The seller paid $469,900 in 2024 and now asks 17% more. Light cosmetic updates may not justify that.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 7Check

Stucco two-story with a flat-looking roofline. Exterior is in decent shape, but the stucco and roof edge need an inspection for moisture.

Listing photo 3
2 of 7Plus

Kitchen appears recently updated: white cabinets, butcher-block counters, stainless appliances, gas range and a subway tile backsplash. Looks cosmetic and recent.

Listing photo 4
3 of 7Plus

Refinished hardwood floors in the living areas appear in good condition.

Listing photo 5
4 of 7Plus

In-unit stacked washer/dryer is visible, which supports the listing's claim of separate laundry.

Listing photo 8
5 of 7Plus

Bedrooms have new carpet and double-hung windows that appear to be newer vinyl. One bedroom has a closet, and a small stain is visible on the carpet.

Listing photo 10
6 of 7Plus

Bathroom appears updated with tiled tub surround and a pedestal sink. Basic finishes, but clean.

Listing photo 1
7 of 7Check

No photos of the basement unit, mechanicals, panel, furnace, roof or the other units. Check these in person, especially egress and ceiling height downstairs.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$550,000
Cash to close
$126,500
Price per unit
$275,000
GRM
10.8

Each month

Cash flow
−$808/mo
Cash-on-cash
−7.7%
Cap rate
4.6%
DSCR
0.72×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$398,201
Rent that breaks even
$5,299/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.50M vs $1.34M
Cash flow turns positive
year 14

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$4,250
Vacancy (6%)−$255
Collected$3,995
Property tax Public record−$659
Insurance Estimate−$264
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$340
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$382
Net operating income$2,119
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$2,927
Cash flow−$808
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$372

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,499,280
Your equity when you sell
$1,254,894

Sells for $1,334,994 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($80,100). Rent paid down $440,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$244,386

$166,443 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$1,335,029
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$962,950

$126,500 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$372,078

$66,314 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $164,251 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.50M, stocks $1.34M. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

4 bed / 1 bath estimate $2,350/mo · range $2,050–$2,650

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
220 E 27th St, Minneapolis 55408 $2,600 4 / 1 2,516 0.8 mi 2026-04-04 89%
1810 10th Ave S, Unit Lower, Minneapolis 55404 off market $2,050 4 / 2 — 0.9 mi 2026-06-15 88%
1810 10th Ave S, Minneapolis 55404 off market $2,150 4 / 2 — 0.9 mi 2026-06-15 88%
739 E 27th St, Minneapolis 55407 off market $2,600 4 / 1 1,699 0.3 mi 2022-05-23 85%
2121 11th Ave S, Minneapolis 55404 off market $2,289 4 / 1 1,800 0.7 mi 2026-06-12 85%
3032 3rd Ave S, Minneapolis 55408 $2,200 4 / 1 1,800 0.8 mi 2026-08-17 85%
2636 14th Ave S, Apt 2, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,650 3 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-07-10 84%
2709 Bloomington Ave S, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,900 3 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-05-02 84%
2709 Bloomington Ave S, Unit 2, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,900 3 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-05-21 84%
2205 10th Ave S, Minneapolis 55404 off market $1,700 3 / 1 — 0.7 mi 2026-06-25 84%

3 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,900/mo · range $1,725–$2,075

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
2636 14th Ave S, Apt 2, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,650 3 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-07-10 94%
2709 Bloomington Ave S, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,900 3 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-05-02 94%
2709 Bloomington Ave S, Unit 2, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,900 3 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-05-21 94%
2205 10th Ave S, Minneapolis 55404 off market $1,700 3 / 1 — 0.7 mi 2026-06-25 93%
1829 11th Ave S, Minneapolis 55404 off market $1,550 3 / 1 — 0.9 mi 2026-06-16 93%
2821 1st Ave S, Minneapolis 55408 $1,600 3 / 1 1,743 0.9 mi 2026-06-17 84%
2643 12th Ave S, Unit 1, Minneapolis 55407 $1,785 2 / 1 — 0.2 mi 2023-06-08 84%
2835 Park Ave, Minneapolis 55407 $1,255 2 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-07-17 84%
3029 Chicago Ave S, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,575 2 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-04-18 84%
3029-3031 Chicago Ave S, Minneapolis 55407 off market $1,575 2 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2026-03-24 84%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highProperty taxes have been delinquent since 2025. Expect penalties and a payoff at closing; ask why. Public record: Hennepin County parcel 3502924340051: earliest delinquent year=25
  • highDescription says three units; the county records only two living units. The basement unit may be unpermitted or unlicensed. Based on: data: county.living_units · AI review
  • highBasement bedrooms need egress and proper ceiling height to be legal. If it is not a legal unit, a third of the claimed income disappears. Listing says: a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom basement unit · AI review
  • mediumNo rental license on file in the city's data. Ask whether the building is licensed as a rental and when it was last inspected. Public record: Minneapolis Active Rental Licenses: no record for 2820 12TH AVE S
  • mediumFlat roof per the city assessor on a stucco building: get its age and a moisture inspection. Public record: Hennepin County parcel 3502924340051: roof=FLAT, exterior=STUCCO
  • mediumBought for $469,900 in Apr 2024; asking is 17% more 30 months later. Ask what was done to justify the jump. Public record: Hennepin County parcel 3502924340051: last sale 2024-04-01, $469,900
  • mediumRent estimates are the only income data. No actual rents or leases are given, so the occupancy and rent roll are unverified. Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review
  • mediumTaxes are about $7.9K a year and the tax bill is non-homestead. Delinquency adds penalties on top of that. Based on: data: county.tax · AI review
  • mediumCounty market value is $416,500 against a $550K ask, so the price is well above the assessor's value. Based on: data: county.market_value · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 152 days on market
  • 149 days on market gives room to negotiate hard, especially given the delinquent taxes and licensing gap. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review
  • No rent cap in Minneapolis, so rents can follow the market after a refresh. Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review
  • Units appear freshly turned with new kitchens, so near-term rehab looks light in the upper units. Based on: photo 3 · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • Is the basement a legal, licensed third unit? Ask for the certificate of occupancy and the rental license status.
  • Why are the taxes delinquent, how much is owed, and is it paid at closing?
  • What are the current rents and lease terms for each unit? Ask for the rent roll and 12 months of expenses.
  • What is the age and condition of the flat roof, and has it leaked?
  • Who pays heat and water, and are there separate meters and furnaces for each unit?
  • The seller paid $469,900 in 2024. What was renovated since then?

Bottom line

Big units and fresh finishes, but a possibly illegal third unit, delinquent taxes and a price about $152K above break-even make this a pass unless the price drops hard. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordHennepin County record, current payable year (non-homestead)$7,909
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$3,168
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1916: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-05-06 (152 days); last sold for $469,900 on 2024-08-28.

DateEventPrice
Listed$550,000
Sold public record$469,900
Sold$469,900
Sold$460,000
Removed$310,000
Removed—
Listed$469,999
Listed$469,999
Sold public record$245,000
Removed$310,000
Listed$310,000
Removed$274,900
Price changed$274,900
Price changed$289,900
Listed$299,900
Sold public record$273,000
Sold public record$130,000
Sold public record$80,000
Sold public record$50,000
Sold public record$50,000

County record Public record

Recorded asduplex
Living units2
Year built1916
Market value (2026)$416,500
Property tax$7,909
Special assessmentsnone
Homesteadno
Taxes delinquent since25
Last sale2024-04-01 · $469,900

Source: Hennepin County parcel records.

City rental license

No record in Minneapolis Active Rental Licenses.

Nearest highway

I 35W, about 1079 m away.

Crime in Midtown Phillips

409 incidents in the last 12 months (79 per 1,000 residents), +2% vs. the year before. Minneapolis police incidents, all reported offenses (definitions differ from St. Paul's, so don't compare across cities).