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393 Geranium Ave E

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath and 2 bed / 1 bath unit split estimated · 2,112 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Payne – Phalen (Railroad Island) · View the listing ↗

Overpriced
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Photos courtesy of Keller Williams Realty, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$329,900
2 units · $165K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$618
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,850/mo
low confidence · 6 rentals within 1.5 mi
Break-even price
$213,869
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 5-bed up/down duplex in Payne-Phalen asking $329,900, and our numbers say it doesn't work at that price. Estimated rents of about $1,725 (3-bed) and $1,125 (2-bed) lose roughly $618 a month with a 4.1% cap rate, and break-even is near $214K. The description gives no rents, no lease status and no rental license, and it leans on a past short-term-rental use that the buyer has to verify. Photos show cosmetic updates over a 1917 building, and the listing never mentions roof, heat or electrical details. Ask for the rent roll, the license status and the special assessment details before spending time on a showing; at this price it is only worth a look if the seller moves a long way.

Things to consider

  1. Asking price far exceeds what rents support The numbers show negative cash flow at asking, and break-even is about $116K lower. It only works with a major price cut or owner-occupancy.
  2. Rental licensing and short-term rental use are unverified An unlicensed building can mean inspection costs, delays or restrictions on how you rent it. The seller's income history may not be allowed going forward.Listing says: “Buyer to verify all rental uses and requirements.”
  3. Special assessments add to the cost $3,020 on the tax bill adds to carrying costs unless the seller pays at closing. Taxes are also on the non-homestead basis.
  4. No rents or lease details are given You can't verify income or tenant protections. St. Paul's 3% cap would limit rent increases for sitting tenants.
  5. Updates look cosmetic on a 1917 building Roof, mechanicals, wiring and plumbing are not mentioned, and these cost the most to replace.From photo 7

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 8Check

Living room has laminate-style flooring, original-looking trim and columns; the updates appear cosmetic.

Listing photo 2
2 of 8Check

Themed decor and carpet in this unit suggest a short-term-rental or staged setup; ask about its true use and occupancy.

Listing photo 4
3 of 8Concern

Kitchen has dark cabinets, a gas range and worn-looking vinyl flooring; it looks usable but dated rather than renovated.

Listing photo 6
4 of 8Plus

Second kitchen is brighter, with white cabinets, stainless fridge and gas range, but it has laminate counters and dated tile flooring.

Listing photo 7
5 of 8Check

A small breaker-style electrical panel is visible in the kitchen. Confirm its amperage and whether each unit has its own panel.

Listing photo 8
6 of 8Plus

Bathroom has a newer vanity and fixtures and looks clean.

Listing photo 9
7 of 8Check

Second bathroom has a duct running across the ceiling and a basic vanity; it looks like a basement or lower-level bath, so check for moisture.

Listing photo 10
8 of 8Check

Stucco exterior with a detached garage and fenced yard; no boiler, furnace, roof close-ups or basement are shown. Check the stucco and roof condition.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneExtensive updates throughout, including updated kitchens and bathsListing says: updated kitchens and baths, refreshed living spaces and a large corner lot

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$329,900
Cash to close
$75,877
Price per unit
$164,950
GRM
9.6

Each month

Cash flow
−$618/mo
Cash-on-cash
−9.8%
Cap rate
4.1%
DSCR
0.65×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$213,869
Rent that breaks even
$3,652/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$804K vs $945K
Cash flow turns positive
year 19

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,850
Vacancy (6%)−$171
Collected$2,679
Property tax Public record−$613
Insurance Estimate−$213
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$228
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$256
Net operating income$1,138
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,756
Cash flow−$618
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$223

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$803,541
Your equity when you sell
$752,709

Sells for $800,754 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($48,045). Rent paid down $263,920 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$50,833

$39,643 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$945,392
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$577,595

$75,877 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$367,797

$73,190 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

Stocks come out $141,851 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $804K, stocks $945K. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

3 bed estimate $1,725/mo · range $1,575–$1,950 · 6 rentals within 1.5 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
736 Geranium Ave E Apt A, Saint Paul $1,600 3 / 1 — 0.7 mi 2026-08-28 Multi family
586 Reaney Ave E Unit 586U2, Saint Paul $1,614 3 / 1 1,100 0.9 mi 2023-06-04 Apartment
595 Minnehaha Ave E, Saint Paul $1,155 3 / 1 830 1.0 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
691 Bedford St Unit A, Saint Paul $2,052 3 / 1 1,050 1.0 mi 2025-09-24 Apartment
610 N Capitol Blvd Unit 3, Saint Paul $1,650 3 / 1 1,600 1.4 mi — Apartment
764 Capitol Hts Unit 2, Saint Paul $1,800 3 / 1 840 1.4 mi 2026-04-24 Apartment

2 bed estimate $1,125/mo · range $1,100–$1,275 · 11 rentals within 0.75 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
1205 Westminster St, Saint Paul $1,120 2 / 1 710 0.2 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
1039-1041 Arkwright St, Saint Paul $1,445 2 / 1 1,100 0.2 mi 2026-09-19 Apartment
1280 Westminster St, Saint Paul $1,042 2 / 1 850 0.2 mi 2026-03-03 Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N Unit 112, Saint Paul $1,050 2 / 1 880 0.4 mi — Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N Unit 216, Saint Paul $1,215 2 / 1 880 0.4 mi — Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N Unit 114, Saint Paul $1,075 2 / 1 880 0.4 mi — Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N, Saint Paul $1,075 2 / 1 880 0.4 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
953 Desoto St, Saint Paul $950 2 / 1 650 0.4 mi 2026-02-12 Apartment
1332 Mississippi St, Saint Paul $1,260 2 / 1 728 0.4 mi 2026-01-27 Apartment
904-906 Burr St, Saint Paul $999 2 / 1 900 0.5 mi 2025-01-11 Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highPast short-term rental use may not be allowed or licensed for this building, and the listing puts the burden on the buyer. Listing says: Previously utilized for short-term rental income · AI review
  • highPrice is far above what long-term rents support, with negative cash flow at asking. Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
  • mediumNo rental certificate (CofO) on file in the city's data. Ask whether the building is licensed as a rental and when it was last inspected. Public record: St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential: no record for 393 GERANIUM AVE E (dataset last updated mid-2025)
  • medium$3,020 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 292922220046: special assessments (payable 2026) = $3,020.42
  • mediumAsking is $116,031 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($213,869) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $329,900 vs. break-even $213,869
  • mediumPhotos show a themed, short-term-rental style setup, so there may be no stable long-term tenants or lease history. Based on: photo 2 · AI review
  • lowSeller paid $300K in 2020 and is asking about $30K more, with the price already cut after 70 days on market. Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review

Opportunities

  • Owner-occupy one unit and rent the other to offset the cost. Listing says: Live in one unit while generating rental income from the other · AI review
  • The finished lower level could add usable space or a bedroom if it has proper egress. Listing says: The lower level provides additional finished space and even more potential. · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • Is the property licensed as a rental, and when was the last city inspection?
  • What are the special assessments for, and will the seller pay them off at closing?
  • Who lives in each unit now, and what are the rents and lease terms?
  • How were the short-term rentals permitted, and what did they actually earn?
  • What are the ages of the roof, boiler or furnace, water heater and electrical panels?
  • Is the heat separate for each unit, and who pays for each utility?

Bottom line

Cosmetically refreshed duplex priced about $116K above where the numbers work, with licensing and short-term-rental questions to answer first. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$7,354
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,561
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1917: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-07-27 (70 days); down $35,000 (9.6%) from the first ask of $364,900; last sold for $300,000 on 2021-01-20.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$329,900
Price changed$349,900
Listed$364,900
Sold public record$300,000
Sold$300,000
Sold public record$175,000
Sold$42,650
Removed$50,000
Listed$45,500
Price changed$50,000
Price changed$56,000
Listed$58,900
Sold public record$200,000
Sold public record$131,500
Sold public record$59,065

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1917
Market value (2026)$359,700
Property tax, payable 2026$7,354
Special assessments$3,020
Homesteadno
Last sale2020-09-23 · $300,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

No record in St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential (dataset last updated mid-2025).

Nearest highway

I 35E;US 10, about 364 m away.

Crime in Payne – Phalen

1,695 incidents in the last 12 months (51 per 1,000 residents), −10% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.