412 Holly Ln

Fourplex · 4 units: 3 bed / 2 bath ×4 · 6,528 sq ft

Far off

13 photos

Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price: $1,195,000
Monthly cash flow: −$4,058
Estimated rent: $5,100/mo
Break-even price: $432,479

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

From the listing

Fully renovated and fully occupied 4-unit townhome property offers both modern appeal and immediate income stability. Each spacious unit features 3 bedrooms and has been thoughtfully updated from top to bottom. Recent improvements include stainless steel appliances, updated plumbing and lighting, new fixtures throughout, with high-efficiency mechanicals-furnace, A/C condenser, and tankless water heater. The interiors showcase stylish finishes with new tile flooring, plush carpet, fresh paint, and beautifully updated kitchens complete with new cabinetry and granite countertops. Bathrooms feature elegant marble vanities, and each unit includes its own high-efficiency washer and dryer for added convenience. Additional amenities include a single-stall garage with keyless entry and a private rooftop deck with maintenance-free decking. Each unit generates top market rents, with tenants responsible for all utilities, making this a turnkey, low-maintenance investment with solid cash flow.

Description from Realtor.com, MLS #7039849. Believed reliable but not guaranteed; confirm with the listing agent. View on Realtor.com ↗

First look

This is a 4-unit townhome building asking $1.195M, and the numbers don't work. Our underwriting shows about -$4,058 a month and a 2.3% cap rate, and break-even is roughly $432K. The listing says 'top market rents' but gives no figures. The rents in FACTS ($1,995 to $2,325 per unit) are well above our $1,275 mid estimate for a 3-bed, so ask for leases and proof of payment before trusting them. It has been listed 185 days, so the market is likely saying the same thing about price. Only worth a showing if the seller will cut the price by more than half and the rent roll holds up.

Things to consider

Asking price far exceeds what cash flow supports At about -$4,058 a month and a 2.3% cap rate, it fails at today's rates. Break-even price is under half the ask.
Claimed rents are unproven and well above our estimate If the rents in FACTS are overstated, value falls further. Verify with leases and bank deposits.Listing says: “Each unit generates top market rents, with tenants responsible for all utilities”
Tax bill and unit count not verified We couldn't match a county parcel, so taxes could be higher than assumed and legal unit status is unconfirmed.
Roof decks on a flat roofline are a leak risk Four decks and rooftop mechanicals add penetrations. A roof problem would be costly across all units.Listing says: “a private rooftop deck with maintenance-free decking”
Heavy use from 11 bedrooms and 8 baths Many tenants means more wear and turnover, even with recent updates. Reserves should reflect that.

From the photos

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

doneFurnace, A/C condenser and tankless water heater replaced or upgradedListing says: high-efficiency mechanicals-furnace, A/C condenser, and tankless water heater
doneKitchens renovated with new cabinets and graniteListing says: beautifully updated kitchens complete with new cabinetry and granite countertops
doneUpdated plumbing and lighting, new fixturesListing says: updated plumbing and lighting, new fixtures throughout

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price: $1,195,000
Cash to close: $274,850
Price per unit: $298,750
GRM: 19.5

Each month

Cash flow: −$4,058/mo
Cash-on-cash: −17.7%
Cap rate: 2.3%
DSCR: 0.36×

Break-even

Price that breaks even: $432,479
Rent that breaks even: $10,237/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks: $2.73M vs $5.65M
Cash flow turns positive: not within 30 years

Estimated rent per unit Estimate

Unit 1: 3 bed / 2 bathCurrent rent $2,325$1,275 $1,250–$1,550
Unit 2: 3 bed / 2 bathCurrent rent $1,995$1,275 $1,250–$1,550
Unit 3: 3 bed / 2 bathCurrent rent $1,995$1,275 $1,250–$1,550
Unit 4: 3 bed / 2 bathCurrent rent $2,250$1,275 $1,250–$1,550

Median asking rent of nearby rental listings with the same bedroom count (within 1.5 miles), from rental listings on Realtor.com. Range is the middle half of those rents. Asking rents, not signed leases. Scaled +3% to match RentCast, from 170 listings that have both. We also checked RentCast: $7,900/mo in total; we use the lower of the two to stay conservative. Confidence: low. As of 2026-10-06. See the comparable rentals ↓

Adjustments: $25/unit (garage mentioned in the description)

Rent rules: No rent cap.

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent	$5,100
Vacancy (6%)	−$306
Collected	$4,794
Property tax Listing	−$891
Insurance Estimate	−$436
Water, sewer, trash Estimate	−$340
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)	−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)	−$408
Capital reserve (7% of rent)	−$357
Net operating income	$2,302
Mortgage (principal + interest)	−$6,360
Cash flow	−$4,058
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)	$809

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$2,726,544

Your equity when you sell: $2,726,544
Rental profits, invested at 7%: $0

Same money in stocks$5,646,672

Cash to close, invested at 7%: $2,092,228
Monthly shortfalls, invested: $3,554,444

Stocks come out $2,920,128 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $2.73M, stocks $5.65M. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

3 bed estimate $1,275/mo · range $1,250–$1,550 · 6 rentals within 1.5 mi

Address	Rent	Bd / Ba	Sq ft	Distance	Listed	Type
920 Patriot Dr, Mankato	$1,395	3 / 1.5	1,285	0.6 mi	2026-05-15	Apartment
1027 E Main St Unit 2, Mankato	$1,200	3 / 1	995	1.0 mi	2025-07-15	Duplex triplex
701 S Victory Dr, Mankato	$1,199	3 / 1	925	1.0 mi	2026-08-10	Apartment
200 Briargate Rd, Mankato	$1,719	3 / 2	1,285	1.2 mi	2025-08-05	Apartment
140 Homestead Rd, Mankato	$1,208	3 / 1	1,054	1.4 mi	2026-04-03	Apartment
120 Locust St Apt 7, Mankato	$1,148	3 / 2	—	1.4 mi	2024-05-02	Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

highPrice is far above what the income supports; deeply negative cash flow at asking Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
high'Top market rents' claimed with no figures or lease terms given Listing says: Each unit generates top market rents, with tenants responsible for all utilities · AI review
mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 412 HOLLY LN
mediumAsking is $762,521 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($432,479) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $1,195,000 vs. break-even $432,479
mediumRents in FACTS are far above our estimate for 3-beds; lease status unknown Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review
mediumTaxes unverified, which matters at this price and a likely higher non-homestead bill Based on: data: county.tax · AI review
mediumFlat roof decks on a 1969 building; roof and deck waterproofing condition unknown Listing says: a private rooftop deck with maintenance-free decking · AI review

Opportunities

Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 185 days on market, 1 price cuts
Recent mechanical and kitchen updates may keep near-term repair costs low Listing says: high-efficiency mechanicals-furnace, A/C condenser, and tankless water heater · AI review
Tenants pay all utilities, so owner expenses are lower Listing says: tenants responsible for all utilities · AI review
185 days on market gives room to negotiate Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review
Each unit has its own washer/dryer and a garage stall, which supports rentability Listing says: each unit includes its own high-efficiency washer and dryer · AI review

Questions for the agent

Can you provide the rent roll, signed leases and 12 months of deposits for each unit?
What are the lease end dates, and is anyone month-to-month?
What are the actual property taxes, and are there any special assessments?
Who did the renovation, were permits pulled, and when was it done?
What are the roof age and the condition of the rooftop deck waterproofing?
Why has it been listed for 185 days, and has the price been reduced?

Bottom line

Nicely renovated, but at $1.195M it loses about $4K a month and only works near $430K unless the claimed rents are proven and the price drops sharply. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2026. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.	$10,694
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote	$5,232
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid	$340
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent	$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal	$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. 12 bedrooms: +1 pt repairs for wear; "fully renovated" in the description: -1 pts each	8% / 7%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-04-03 (185 days); last sold for $336,850 on 2023-04-21.

Date	Event	Price
2026-06-28	Removed	$1,295,000
2026-06-24	Removed	—
2026-04-03	Listed	$1,195,000
2026-01-01	Removed	$1,295,000
2025-10-13	Listed	$1,295,000
2025-10-01	Removed	$1,295,000
2025-03-17	Listed	$1,295,000
2023-04-21	Sold	$336,850
2001-12-21	Sold public record	$350,000
1985-12-01	Sold public record	$240,000

From the listing Listing

Listed as	multi-family
Property tax, 2026	$10,694
County	Blue Earth County
Parcel number	R01.09.16.102.005

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Mankato on rental licensing before you buy.