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416 4th Ave S

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 1,334 sq ft

South Saint Paul, MN · View the listing ↗

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Photos courtesy of "TheMLSonline.com, Inc." - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$275,000
2 units · $138K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$10
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,800/mo
low confidence · 7 rentals within 1.5 mi
Break-even price
$273,061
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 2-bed/1-bath-per-unit duplex at $275K, and our numbers say it loses about $10 a month at asking with 20% down. The cap rate is 6.3% and break-even price is about $273.1K, so there is roughly $2K of room to negotiate before it pencils. The listing gives no rents, no lease status, no heat type and no tax figure, so the income side is all our estimate ($1,400 per unit mid). Photos show dated finishes, a window AC unit and forced-air vents, so check heat metering and the systems first. Worth a showing only if the price comes down or you would live in one unit.

Things to consider

  1. Price is above what rents support At asking with 20% down our model loses money and the break-even price is about $273.1K. You would need a lower price or higher rents than our estimate.
  2. Income is estimated, not documented No rents or leases are given, so our $1,400 mid-rent per unit is a guess. Verify against actual leases before underwriting.
  3. Unverified taxes and unit count The county match failed, so taxes may differ from what you assume. Pull the real tax bill and confirm it is a legal duplex.
  4. Dated finishes and no central air Cosmetic kitchens and window AC suggest limited rent upside without spending. Budget for updates and reserves on a 1900 building.From photo 5
  5. Owner-occupant angle may be the best use Living in one unit can offset the weak investor cash flow and may allow lower down payment financing. Confirm lender rules.Listing says: “the flexibility to live in one unit while renting the other”

From the photos

Listing photo 5
1 of 7Concern

Kitchen has painted gray cabinets, basic laminate counters, white appliances and a drop-ceiling-style tile ceiling; looks budget cosmetic, not a full remodel.

Listing photo 4
2 of 7Concern

Window AC unit visible in a kitchen window and another bedroom window, so there appears to be no central air.

Listing photo 4
3 of 7Check

Floor vents are visible, which suggests forced-air heat. Unclear whether it is one furnace or two.

Listing photo 9
4 of 7Check

Bathroom has a tub surround with white tile, a pedestal-style sink and older windows; appears serviceable but basic.

Listing photo 10
5 of 7Plus

Vinyl-sided exterior with an enclosed front porch looks tidy and maintained; roof is not visible.

Listing photo 10
6 of 7Plus

Separate exterior stair on the side suggests a second entrance for the upper unit.

Listing photo 3
7 of 7Check

No photos of the basement, furnace, water heater, electrical panel or the second unit's kitchen, so major systems and unit two are unseen.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$275,000
Cash to close
$63,250
Price per unit
$137,500
GRM
8.2

Each month

Cash flow
−$10/mo
Cash-on-cash
−0.2%
Cap rate
6.3%
DSCR
0.99×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$273,061
Rent that breaks even
$2,813/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.17M vs $482K
Cash flow turns positive
year 2

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,800
Vacancy (6%)−$168
Collected$2,632
Property tax Listing−$277
Insurance Estimate−$196
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$224
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$252
Net operating income$1,453
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,464
Cash flow−$10
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$186

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,165,190
Your equity when you sell
$627,447

Sells for $667,497 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($40,050). Rent paid down $220,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$537,743

$268,801 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$482,356
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$481,475

$63,250 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$881

$124 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $682,834 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.17M, stocks $482K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

2 bed estimate $1,400/mo · range $1,200–$1,500 · 7 rentals within 1.5 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
614 1st Ave S Unit 1, South Saint Paul $1,335 2 / 1 1,000 0.3 mi — Apartment
1028 8th Ave S, South Saint Paul $1,175 2 / 1 785 0.9 mi 2026-01-16 Apartment
138 Dwane St Apt 3, South Saint Paul $1,450 2 / 1 1,300 1.0 mi 2026-10-02 Apartment
233 Buron Ln, South Saint Paul $1,150 2 / 1 575 1.0 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
352 21st Ave S, South Saint Paul $1,025 2 / 1 780 1.1 mi 2025-02-27 Apartment
1240 Bryant Ave, Saint Paul $1,349 2 / 1 800 1.5 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
2044 Oakdale Ave, West Saint Paul $1,435 2 / 1 982 1.5 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 416 4TH AVE S
  • mediumTaxes, unit count and rental license could not be verified; the county record did not match. Based on: data: county.tax · AI review
  • mediumNegative cash flow at asking price under our base scenario. Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
  • mediumListing gives no rents, lease terms, or occupancy, so income is unproven. Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review
  • lowBuilt 1900 with unknown electrical, plumbing and foundation condition. Based on: data: listing.year_built · AI review

Opportunities

  • Owner-occupant house hack: live in one unit and rent the other, which may help financing. Listing says: the flexibility to live in one unit while renting the other · AI review
  • On the market 40 days, so there may be room to negotiate toward the break-even price. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease end dates and is either unit vacant or month-to-month?
  • Is there a separate furnace, meter and water heater for each unit, and who pays which utilities?
  • Is it licensed as a legal duplex in South St. Paul, and what is the annual tax bill?
  • How old are the roof, furnace, electrical panel and water heater?
  • Why is the seller selling, and have there been any offers or price changes?
  • Does the basement or any space have a legal bedroom, and is there off-street parking or a garage?

Bottom line

A plain 2x2 duplex that is about $2K overpriced for investors at today's rates, with no rent or expense data to prove otherwise. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2026. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$3,325
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,347
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1900: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-08-26 (40 days); down $10,000 (3.5%) from the first ask of $285,000; last sold for $165,000 on 2020-03-31; listed for rent at $900/mo on 2018-11-28.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$275,000
Price changed$279,500
Listed$285,000
Sold$165,000
Rental removed$900/mo
Listed for rent$900/mo
Removed$179,900
Price changed$179,900
Price changed$185,900
Listed$189,900
Sold public record$185,000

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex up and down
Property tax, 2026$3,325
CountyDakota
Parcel number366430010260

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with South Saint Paul on rental licensing before you buy.

Nearest highway

I 494, about 1138 m away.