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422 Conley Ave S

Duplex · 2 units: 1 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 840 sq ft

Thief River Falls, MN · View the listing ↗

Cash flows
1 photos
422 Conley Ave S, photo 1
1 / 1

Photos courtesy of USA Realty - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$25,000
2 units · $12K per unit
Monthly cash flow
$506
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$1,450/mo
medium confidence
Break-even price
$120,136
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

At $25,000 this is priced like a teardown or a listing error, not a working duplex. The description claims two 2-bed/2-bath units, but the listing shows 840 sq ft total, which can't hold that. Our rent estimate assumes two 1-bed units at about $725 each, and the 30.7% cap rate and $506/mo cash flow only hold if the taxes and condition are what we assumed. The photo shows a small, older house with a single-family look, so confirm it is legally a duplex before anything else. Don't spend on a showing until the agent explains the price, the real unit count and the square footage.

Things to consider

  1. Price signals a hidden problem Sub-$100K listings often involve major repairs, legal or title issues. Resolve this first.
  2. Unit count and size don't add up Two 2-bed/2-bath units in 840 sq ft is implausible. Our estimate assumes two 1-beds, so rents depend on the true layout.
  3. Strong modeled returns rest on unverified inputs The 30.7% cap rate uses estimated rents and unverified taxes. Real numbers could be much worse.
  4. Very old building An 1890 build means budget for systems and inspect the foundation, wiring and plumbing.
  5. Thin description gives no income data Without a rent roll or expense history you are buying on estimates only.Listing says: “offers excellent rental income potential in a desirable neighborhood”

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 5Check

Exterior looks like a modest older single-family house with a small deck; I can see only one clear entry on this side, and the second unit isn't obvious.

Listing photo 1
2 of 5Plus

Roof shingles appear fairly intact and uniform, with no obvious sagging in this view.

Listing photo 1
3 of 5Concern

Metal-looking or aged siding and a worn wood deck with steps appear to need maintenance or paint.

Listing photo 1
4 of 5Check

A side door and a front door are visible, which could mean two entrances. Confirm whether they serve separate units.

Listing photo 1
5 of 5Check

Only one exterior photo is shown. No kitchens, baths, mechanicals, panel or basement are visible, so interior condition is unknown.

Based on 1 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$25,000
Cash to close
$5,750
Price per unit
$12,500
GRM
1.4

Each month

Cash flow
$506/mo
Cash-on-cash
105.7%
Cap rate
30.7%
DSCR
4.81×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$120,136
Rent that breaks even
$792/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$857K vs $44K
Cash flow turns positive
year 1

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$1,450
Vacancy (6%)−$87
Collected$1,363
Property tax Listing−$63
Insurance Estimate−$184
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$116
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$130
Net operating income$639
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$133
Cash flow$506
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$17

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$856,890
Your equity when you sell
$57,041

Sells for $60,682 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($3,641). Rent paid down $20,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$799,849

$293,974 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$43,770
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$43,770

$5,750 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

The building comes out $813,120 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $857K, stocks $44K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

1 bed / 1 bath estimate $725/mo · range $650–$800

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
1308 Dale St, Apt 101, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $650 1 / 1 756 0.8 mi 2026-01-21 96%
1308 Dale St, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $660 1 / 1 756 0.8 mi 2025-09-15 96%
413 Merriam Ave S, Unit 7, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $775 1 / 1 — 0.3 mi 2025-06-02 94%
416 Main Ave N, Apt 4, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $625 1 / 1 — 0.6 mi 2024-08-28 93%
501 3rd St W, Unit 507, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $725 1 / 1 — 0.8 mi 2026-07-29 93%
106 Wheatland Ests, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $895 1 / 1 — 0.8 mi 2024-04-15 93%
1308 Dale St Edgewood Dr, Unit 1238, Thief Rive… off market $810 1 / 1 — 0.8 mi 2026-04-27 93%
619 N State Ave, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $650 1 / 1 — 0.9 mi 2026-08-13 93%
320 Oak Ave N, Apt 225, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $650 1 / 1 — 1.0 mi 2024-11-18 93%
550 W 8th St, Unit 21, Thief River Falls 56701 off market $650 1 / 1 — 1.0 mi 2026-07-21 93%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highPriced under $100K: usually means major repairs, a fire or condemned building, a contract-for-deed or partial-interest sale, or a listing error. Find out why before anything else. Based on: Listing data: asking $25,000
  • highDescription says two 2-bed/2-bath units, but 840 sq ft total can't fit that. Unit count, layout or square footage is wrong. Based on: data: listing.sqft · AI review
  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 422 CONLEY AVE S
  • mediumNo rents, lease status, expenses or condition are given. The copy is pure marketing. Listing says: offers excellent rental income potential in a desirable neighborhood · AI review
  • mediumBuilt 1890, so expect old wiring, plumbing and possibly foundation issues at this price. Based on: data: listing.year_built · AI review
  • low56 days on market at a very low price suggests buyers found a problem. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Opportunities

  • If the building is sound and legally two units, the price is far below the $120K break-even our model shows. Based on: data: underwriting.break_even_price · AI review
  • No rent cap, so rents can follow the market after any fixes. Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • Why is it priced at $25,000? Is there a fire, condemnation, lien, contract-for-deed or partial-interest issue?
  • How many units are there really, and what are the beds, baths and square footage of each?
  • Are both units occupied? What are the rents, lease terms and deposits?
  • What are the annual taxes, any special assessments, and the utility setup (separate meters, who pays heat)?
  • What are the ages of the roof, furnace, water heater, electrical panel and foundation condition?
  • Is there a rental license, and does the city recognize it as a duplex?

Bottom line

Too cheap and too inconsistent to trust: confirm the unit count, square footage and the reason for the price before you spend any time on it. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2026. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$754
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,211
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1890: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-08-10 (56 days); down $12,000 (32.4%) from the first ask of $37,000; last sold for $36,500 on 2025-03-31.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$25,000
Listed$37,000
Sold public record$36,500

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex other
Property tax, 2026$754
CountyPennington
Parcel number2501209500

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Thief River Falls on rental licensing before you buy.