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4625 280th St W

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath and 2 bed / 1 bath unit split estimated · 2,860 sq ft

Northfield, MN · View the listing ↗

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Photos courtesy of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Lovejoy Realty, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$429,000
2 units · $214K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$449
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$3,325/mo
medium confidence
Break-even price
$344,658
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

A 2-unit, 5 bed / 2 bath place in Northfield at $429K, and it doesn't cash flow at the ask: our model shows about -$449 a month with a 5.1% cap rate, and break-even is near $345K. The description says 'Great rental income' but gives no rents, leases or expenses, so there is nothing to underwrite except our estimates. It has sat 141 days, so there is room to negotiate toward that break-even number. The photos show cosmetic updates that appear to be a few years old, not a full gut. Get the rent roll, the tax bill and the heating and septic/well setup before you spend time on a showing. Worth a look only if the price comes down meaningfully.

Things to consider

  1. Negative cash flow at the asking price Our model shows about -$449 a month at ask, with break-even near $345K. You'd need a lower price or higher rents than our estimates.
  2. Rents and occupancy are unknown With no stated rents, the income side is only our estimate. Verify leases and actual payments before trusting any numbers.Listing says: “Great rental income.”
  3. Taxes and unit count are unverified We couldn't match a county parcel, so the real tax bill and legal unit status could change the math.
  4. Renovation looks cosmetic and budget-grade Finishes are likely to wear faster, and bathrooms and some windows weren't updated, so plan for reserves.From photo 5
  5. 141 days on market gives leverage A stale listing suggests the price is out of line with the market. Offer near what the numbers support.

From the photos

Listing photo 2
1 of 8Plus

Kitchen looks recently refreshed: white shaker cabinets, laminate counters, vinyl plank floor. Budget-grade finishes.

Listing photo 7
2 of 8Concern

Second kitchen has a drop ceiling with panels and similar budget finishes; the update appears cosmetic.

Listing photo 4
3 of 8Check

Bedroom walls appear to be paneling and the ceiling looks like older textured tile, suggesting manufactured or older construction under the refresh.

Listing photo 5
4 of 8Concern

Bathrooms have older oak vanities and basic vinyl flooring; appear dated but serviceable, not renovated.

Listing photo 1
5 of 8Check

Living room and bedrooms have carpet that appears fairly new and clean, though the staged furniture may be virtual.

Listing photo 6
6 of 8Plus

Each unit has its own washer/dryer, which supports separate living and tenant appeal.

Listing photo 10
7 of 8Check

Second laundry area has exposed wiring/lines and a utility sink and dehumidifier; the dehumidifier may hint at moisture, so ask.

Listing photo 1
8 of 8Check

No photos of exterior, roof, furnace, water heater, electrical panel or basement.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneBoth units fully renovated with new kitchens and flooringListing says: Both units were fully renovated three years ago with new kitchens and flooring.
  • doneNew windows on road-facing front half of each unit onlyListing says: all new windows on the front half of the units (road facing)

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$429,000
Cash to close
$98,670
Price per unit
$214,500
GRM
10.8

Each month

Cash flow
−$449/mo
Cash-on-cash
−5.5%
Cap rate
5.1%
DSCR
0.80×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$344,658
Rent that breaks even
$3,886/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.32M vs $904K
Cash flow turns positive
year 10

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$3,325
Vacancy (6%)−$200
Collected$3,126
Property tax Listing−$386
Insurance Estimate−$210
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (7% of rent)−$233
Capital reserve (7% of rent)−$233
Net operating income$1,834
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$2,283
Cash flow−$449
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$291

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,320,901
Your equity when you sell
$978,818

Sells for $1,041,296 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($62,478). Rent paid down $343,200 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$342,084

$210,227 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$903,989
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$751,101

$98,670 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$152,888

$25,040 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $416,912 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.32M, stocks $904K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

3 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,850/mo · range $1,325–$2,400

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
509 Eighth St, Farmington 55024 off market $893 3 / 1 2,095 6.5 mi 2026-01-10 84%
401-405 Division St, Northfield 55057 off market $2,300 3 / 1 1,283 6.1 mi 2026-01-16 78%
20390 Dodd Blvd, Lakeville 55044 $2,100 3 / 2 — 8.8 mi 2026-07-20 76%
901 College St, Northfield 55057 off market $1,600 2 / 1 — 6.5 mi 2026-02-18 75%
1908 Wilcox Blvd W, Northfield 55057 off market $1,600 2 / 1.5 — 7.3 mi 2026-07-02 71%
314 St Olaf Ave, Northfield 55057 off market $2,075 3 / 1 2,000 5.8 mi 2026-03-23 70%
1000 Division St S, Northfield 55057 off market $1,275 3 / 1 — 6.6 mi 2026-01-19 70%
3882 321st St W, Northfield 55057 off market $1,250 1 / 1 — 4.2 mi 2026-06-09 69%
951 Ensley Ave, Northfield 55057 $1,139 2 / 1 950 5.2 mi 2025-01-03 67%
422 Division St S, Northfield 55057 $2,800 4 / 2 1,567 6.2 mi 2026-01-30 66%

2 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,475/mo · range $1,275–$1,675

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
901 College St, Northfield 55057 off market $1,600 2 / 1 — 6.5 mi 2026-02-18 84%
1908 Wilcox Blvd W, Northfield 55057 off market $1,600 2 / 1.5 — 7.3 mi 2026-07-02 81%
3882 321st St W, Northfield 55057 off market $1,250 1 / 1 — 4.2 mi 2026-06-09 78%
951 Ensley Ave, Northfield 55057 $1,139 2 / 1 950 5.2 mi 2025-01-03 76%
110 8th St, Northfield 55057 off market $1,025 1 / 1 — 6.4 mi 2026-07-21 75%
808 2nd St, Farmington 55024 $1,250 2 / 1 910 6.2 mi 2025-09-03 74%
509 Eighth St, Farmington 55024 off market $893 3 / 1 2,095 6.5 mi 2026-01-10 74%
1337 Centennial Dr, Farmington 55024 off market $1,350 2 / 1 785 5.7 mi 2026-03-19 74%
1909 Wilcox Blvd E, Northfield 55057 off market $1,275 1 / 1 — 7.3 mi 2026-02-19 73%
811 8th St, Farmington 55024 $1,155 2 / 1 800 6.3 mi 2026-07-31 73%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highNo rents, leases or occupancy stated despite 'great rental income' claim Listing says: Great rental income. · AI review
  • highPriced above what our numbers support; negative cash flow at ask Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 4625 280TH ST W
  • lowWindows replaced only on the front half; rear windows are likely older Listing says: all new windows on the front half of the units (road facing) · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 141 days on market
  • Both units have separate laundry, storage shed and garage, which supports tenant appeal and rent Listing says: Each have separate laundry, storage shed & garage. · AI review
  • Heated, insulated garage could command extra rent or serve as a selling point Listing says: Single car garage is heated and insulated. · AI review
  • Long time on market gives negotiating room toward the ~$378K break-even Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease terms and tenant payment histories for each unit?
  • Who pays heat, electric, water and trash, and is it metered separately?
  • What are the real property taxes, and is the property zoned and licensed as a 2-unit rental?
  • Is the property on well and septic, and when were they last inspected?
  • Why has it been listed 141 days, and have there been price cuts or offers?
  • What are the ages of the roof, furnace(s), water heaters and electrical panels?

Bottom line

Updated duplex with no stated rents that loses money at $429K; it only works near $345K or below. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2025. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$4,632
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,515
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. "fully renovated" in the description: -1 pts each7% / 7%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-05-17 (141 days); down $116,000 (21.3%) from the first ask of $545,000; last sold for $335,000 on 2021-10-22.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$429,000
Price changed$435,000
Relisted$449,995
Removed—
Price changed$449,995
Price changed$475,000
Price changed$499,000
Listed$545,000
Sold$335,000
Relisted$329,900
Removed$329,900
Listed$329,900
Removed$349,900
Listed$349,900
Sold public record$244,000
Sold public record$77,900

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex up and down
Property tax, 2025$4,632
CountyDakota
Parcel number130360079014

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Northfield on rental licensing before you buy.