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549 Selby Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 4,017 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Summit – University (Rondo, Cathedral Hill) · View the listing ↗

Far off

Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$522,500
2 units · $261K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$1,211
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$3,550/mo
medium confidence · 8 rentals within 1.5 mi
Break-even price
$294,913
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 1888 up/down duplex on Selby asking $522,500, and the numbers don't work. Our underwriting shows about -$1,211 a month and a 3.6% cap rate, and cash flow only breaks even near $295K. The listing gives no rents, no lease terms, no unit mix and no repair history, so it reads as a sales pitch built on location and projected utility bill-backs. Photos show dated kitchens, dark staining on a bedroom wall and a basement with old wiring, so budget for work. Ask for the rent roll and trailing-12 expenses before a showing; at this price it is worth seeing only if the seller moves a lot.

Things to consider

  1. Price is far above what income supports Our estimate gives roughly -$1,211 a month at asking. Break-even is near $295K, so the gap is huge.
  2. RUBS is a projection, not income Utility bill-backs haven't started and may count against St. Paul's 3% rent cap.Listing says: “ownership implementing a RUBS utility reimbursement program across the portfolio beginning Q3 2026”
  3. Expect deferred maintenance and inspection risk C-grade fire inspection plus visible stains and a worn porch point to repair orders and capital spending.
  4. Taxes are heavy at the investor rate $8,122 in tax plus $1,008 in assessments takes a big share of income from two roughly $1,775 units.
  5. Long time on market gives leverage 143 days suggests the market disagrees with the price; a much lower offer is reasonable.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 8Concern

Front porch has worn, weathered steps and decking, a leaning rail and cracked, patched stucco; needs repair.

Listing photo 9
2 of 8Concern

Dark staining low on the bedroom wall appears to be moisture or mold.

Listing photo 10
3 of 8Check

Basement shows old wiring, small panel boxes and exposed drain pipes; panel type and age are unclear.

Listing photo 4
4 of 8Concern

Kitchen has dated oak cabinets, laminate counters and old tile, but newer-looking range and microwave; cosmetic age rather than recent renovation.

Listing photo 2
5 of 8Plus

Hardwood floors look refinished and in good shape, with large original windows.

Listing photo 6
6 of 8Check

Bathroom has newer tile surround but an old tub and basic vanity; looks like a cheap refresh.

Listing photo 8
7 of 8Check

The bedroom photo is virtually staged, so it doesn't show true condition.

Listing photo 10
8 of 8Check

Washer, dryer and utility sink in the basement suggest shared laundry; no furnace, boiler or water heater photos.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$522,500
Cash to close
$120,175
Price per unit
$261,250
GRM
12.3

Each month

Cash flow
−$1,211/mo
Cash-on-cash
−12.1%
Cap rate
3.6%
DSCR
0.56×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$294,913
Rent that breaks even
$5,123/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.22M vs $1.76M
Cash flow turns positive
year 24

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$3,550
Vacancy (6%)−$213
Collected$3,337
Property tax Public record−$677
Insurance Estimate−$257
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$284
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$320
Net operating income$1,570
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$2,781
Cash flow−$1,211
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$354

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,218,148
Your equity when you sell
$1,192,150

Sells for $1,268,245 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($76,095). Rent paid down $418,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$25,998

$22,756 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$1,758,699
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$914,803

$120,175 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$843,896

$184,308 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

Stocks come out $540,551 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.22M, stocks $1.76M. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

3 bed estimate $1,775/mo · range $1,600–$2,075 · 8 rentals within 1.5 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
865/867 Hague Ave, Saint Paul $1,625 3 / 1 1,300 0.7 mi 2026-06-16 Apartment
555-565 N Kent St, Saint Paul $1,435 3 / 1 875 0.8 mi 2026-04-29 Apartment
987 Dayton Ave, Saint Paul $2,050 3 / 1 2,000 0.9 mi 2026-08-26 Apartment
989 Dayton Ave, Saint Paul $2,050 3 / 1 2,000 0.9 mi — Apartment
690 Virginia St, Saint Paul $1,500 3 / 1 1,620 1.1 mi 2023-03-24 Apartment
653 Galtier St, Saint Paul $1,750 3 / 1.5 1,520 1.1 mi 2025-08-06 Apartment
610 N Capitol Blvd Unit 3, Saint Paul $1,650 3 / 1 1,600 1.4 mi — Apartment
764 Capitol Hts Unit 2, Saint Paul $1,800 3 / 1 840 1.4 mi 2026-04-24 Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highNo rents, leases or occupancy given; the pitch rests on 'immediate cash flow potential' with no numbers. Listing says: this duplex offers immediate cash flow potential combined with long-term redevelopment upside · AI review
  • mediumFire-inspection grade C: more deficiencies than typical; expect more frequent inspections and repair orders. Public record: St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential: 549 SELBY AVE, grade/tier=C, status=Renewal Due
  • medium$1,008 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 012823220118: special assessments (payable 2026) = $1,008.46
  • mediumAsking is $227,587 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($294,913) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $522,500 vs. break-even $294,913
  • mediumProjected utility bill-backs (RUBS) are not income yet, and in St. Paul they may count toward the 3% cap. Listing says: "are currently partially owner-paid, with ownership implementing a RUBS utility reimbursement program across the portfolio beginning Q3"
  • mediumOwner pays part of utilities, but which ones is unstated. This hits expenses directly. Listing says: Utilities are currently partially owner-paid · AI review
  • mediumDark staining low on the bedroom wall suggests moisture or mold; source unknown. Based on: photo 9 · AI review
  • mediumRental license expired in 2024 and shows renewal due; confirm it is current. Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 143 days on market
  • Original hardwood floors, wide trim and bay windows look sound and could support rent after cosmetic work. Based on: photo 2 · AI review
  • Walkable Cathedral Hill location with transit and dining supports tenant demand. Listing says: walkable access to cafes, restaurants, bars, boutique shopping, the Blair Arcade district, public transportation · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease end dates and deposits for each unit? Can you send the rent roll?
  • Which utilities does the owner pay, and what were the trailing-12 bills?
  • What are the $1,008 in special assessments for, and does the seller pay them off at closing?
  • Is the rental license current, and what were the C-grade fire inspection deficiencies?
  • What is the age and condition of the roof, boiler or furnace, and electrical panels?
  • Why has it sat 143 days, and has the price changed?

Bottom line

A pretty historic duplex priced about $228K above where the math works, with no rents disclosed and signs of deferred maintenance. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$8,122
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$3,085
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1888: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-05-15 (143 days); down $52,250 (9.1%) from the first ask of $574,750.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$522,500
Price changed$550,000
Relisted$574,750
Removed—
Listed$574,750

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1888
Market value (2026)$399,300
Property tax, payable 2026$8,122
Special assessments$1,008
Homesteadno
Last sale—

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

Residential 2 Units: 2 unit(s), C, status renewal due, renews 2024-07-01.

Nearest highway

I 94, about 546 m away.

Crime in Summit – University

1,066 incidents in the last 12 months (59 per 1,000 residents), −13% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.