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659 Conway St

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 4,725 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Dayton's Bluff · View the listing ↗

Overpriced

Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$345,000
2 units · $172K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$722
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,750/mo
medium confidence · 9 rentals within 0.75 mi
Break-even price
$209,405
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 2-unit, 1880-built up/down on the East Side priced at $345K, and at our default scenario it loses about $722 a month with a 3.9% cap rate. Break-even is roughly $209K, so the ask is far out of line with what two 2-beds at about $1,375 each can support. The listing gives no rents, no lease terms and no utility figures, so ask for the rent roll and 12 months of expenses before anything else. The photos show clean but dated interiors, with radiators and an old porch, and nothing on the boiler, panel or roof. Only worth a showing if the seller moves a long way on price and the rent roll beats our estimates.

Things to consider

  1. Price is far above what the rents support Cash flow is about -$722 a month at ask and the break-even price is about $209K. You would be buying on hope.
  2. Owner-paid utilities and RUBS are unproven The listing admits the owner pays some utilities. The billback is a projection and may count toward St. Paul's 3% cap.Listing says: “ownership implementing a RUBS utility reimbursement program across the portfolio beginning Q3 2026”
  3. No rents or lease details disclosed Without a rent roll you can't verify income. Sitting-tenant rents are capped at 3% a year.
  4. 1880 building with unseen systems Old wiring, boiler and foundation can mean big capital costs. Photos don't show them.
  5. Highway proximity and $1,214 special assessments Traffic noise can trim rent and assessments raise carrying costs.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 8Check

Two-story wood-sided house with a full front porch and a newer-looking green shingle roof. The porch and siding paint look weathered.

Listing photo 3
2 of 8Concern

Porch deck paint is worn and faded, and the porch is old wood. Expect repainting and possibly deck repairs.

Listing photo 4
3 of 8Check

Original-style hardwood floors with scuffs and wear. They look refinishable but are not fresh.

Listing photo 5
4 of 8Check

Cast-iron radiators in the living and bedroom spaces suggest boiler heat, which differs from the county's 'central' listing.

Listing photo 8
5 of 8Check

Kitchen has basic white cabinets, a gas range, a laminate-style counter and a standard fridge. It looks cheap-update and functional, not high-end.

Listing photo 6
6 of 8Check

The living room photo has a 'Virtually Staged' label, so the furnishings aren't real.

Listing photo 10
7 of 8Plus

Finished basement has new carpet, recessed lights and a supply vent. It may be a usable living area, but egress and legal status are unknown.

Listing photo 10
8 of 8Check

No photos of the boiler, electrical panel, baths or the upper unit's kitchen. Key systems are unseen.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$345,000
Cash to close
$79,350
Price per unit
$172,500
GRM
10.5

Each month

Cash flow
−$722/mo
Cash-on-cash
−10.9%
Cap rate
3.9%
DSCR
0.61×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$209,405
Rent that breaks even
$3,687/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$817K vs $1.07M
Cash flow turns positive
year 22

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,750
Vacancy (6%)−$165
Collected$2,585
Property tax Public record−$500
Insurance Estimate−$273
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$220
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$248
Net operating income$1,115
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,836
Cash flow−$722
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$234

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$817,130
Your equity when you sell
$787,162

Sells for $837,406 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($50,244). Rent paid down $276,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$29,969

$24,912 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$1,074,121
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$604,032

$79,350 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$470,089

$98,370 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

Stocks come out $256,991 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $817K, stocks $1.07M. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

2 bed estimate $1,375/mo · range $1,150–$1,450 · 9 rentals within 0.75 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
701 E 3rd St, Saint Paul $1,099 2 / 1 880 0.1 mi 2024-04-15 Apartment
283-289 Bates Ave, Saint Paul $1,124 2 / 1 711 0.1 mi 2026-04-29 Apartment
207 N Maple St, Saint Paul $1,150 2 / 1 600 0.3 mi 2026-03-12 Apartment
948 Euclid St Unit 1, Saint Paul $1,400 2 / 1 972 0.5 mi 2026-09-23 Apartment
665 Bedford St Unit 2, Saint Paul $1,400 2 / 1 800 0.6 mi 2023-12-20 Duplex triplex
1000 McLean Ave, Saint Paul $1,299 2 / 1 734 0.7 mi 2026-07-14 Apartment
300 Broadway St, Saint Paul $1,616 2 / 1 1,222 0.7 mi 2025-04-03 Apartment
468 Beaumont St E Unit 4, Saint Paul $1,350 2 / 1 800 0.7 mi 2026-07-10 Apartment
685 Burr St, Saint Paul $1,450 2 / 1 750 0.7 mi 2026-04-08 Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highUnusual ownership (land trust, ground lease or co-op): resale price limits or lease terms can cap your upside. Listing says: "to downtown St Paul, public transportation, Mississippi Market Co-Op , and the restaurants, shopping, and entertainment along"
  • medium$1,214 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 322922410021: special assessments (payable 2026) = $1,213.88
  • mediumAbout 106 m from I 94;US 10: traffic noise usually costs $50–100/month in rent. Based on: OpenStreetMap: nearest motorway (I 94;US 10) at 106 m
  • mediumAsking is $135,595 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($209,405) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $345,000 vs. break-even $209,405
  • mediumProjected utility bill-backs (RUBS) are not income yet, and in St. Paul they may count toward the 3% cap. Listing says: "are currently partially owner-paid, with ownership implementing a RUBS utility reimbursement program across the portfolio beginning Q3"
  • mediumOwner pays part of utilities but the listing doesn't say which ones or the cost. That cuts directly into NOI. Listing says: Utilities are currently partially owner-paid · AI review
  • mediumHeat appears to be radiator/boiler, likely shared. The county lists 'central', so the actual system is unclear. Based on: data: county.heat_type · AI review
  • mediumRental license is only pending, so confirm it is in good standing for two units before closing. Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review
  • lowPorch deck paint is worn and the exterior is dated on an 1880 building. Expect ongoing exterior upkeep. Based on: photo 3 · AI review

Opportunities

  • The seller bought for $11,000 in Dec 1995, so they can take a lower offer and still come out well ahead. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 322922410021: last sale 1995-12-01, $11,000
  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 142 days on market
  • Large detached garage off the alley could bring in parking or storage income. Listing says: large detached garage accessed from the alley · AI review
  • Units are vacant-looking and unfurnished, so a light refresh could support rents near our mid estimate, subject to the 3% cap on sitting tenants. Based on: photo 7 · AI review
  • 142 days on market and a seller who paid $11K in 1995 leave real room to negotiate. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease end dates and deposits for each unit?
  • Which utilities does the owner pay, and what were the last 12 months of bills?
  • What is the heating system: one boiler or separate systems? How old is it?
  • What are the $1,214 in special assessments for, and are they paid at closing?
  • What are the ages of the roof, electrical panels and water heaters?
  • Why has it sat 142 days, and is the portfolio seller open to a price cut?

Bottom line

Charming but dated 1880 duplex priced about $135K above where the numbers work, so only worth pursuing at a deep discount. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$5,996
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$3,279
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1880: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-05-16 (142 days); down $102,450 (22.9%) from the first ask of $447,450.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$345,000
Price changed$405,000
Relisted$447,450
Removed—
Listed$447,450

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1880
Market value (2026)$265,100
Property tax, payable 2026$5,996
Special assessments$1,214
Homesteadno
Last sale1995-12-01 · $11,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

Residential 2 Units: 2 unit(s), B, status pending, renews 2026-10-11.

Nearest highway

I 94;US 10, about 106 m away.

Crime in Dayton's Bluff

970 incidents in the last 12 months (52 per 1,000 residents), −6% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.