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790 Geranium Ave E

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 1,960 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Payne – Phalen (Railroad Island) · View the listing ↗

Overpriced

Photos courtesy of Exp Realty - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$285,000
2 units · $142K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$439
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,500/mo
medium confidence · 25 rentals within 1.5 mi
Break-even price
$202,574
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 1914 up/down duplex in Payne-Phalen, asking $285K after 176 days on market. Our underwriting at the ask shows about -$440/mo cash flow and a 4.5% cap rate, with a break-even price near $202.6K, so the price is roughly $82K too high for the rents. The description gives no rents, no lease status and no utility details, so the rent roll comes first. The roof and furnace are described as new in 2023, which is good if permits and receipts back it up. Photos show a tired interior in at least one unit, so I'd only see it if the seller will move toward the low $200Ks.

Things to consider

  1. Price vs. rents Our numbers show negative cash flow at ask and a break-even near $202.6K, so a meaningful price cut is needed for this to work.
  2. Rent roll is missing Without actual rents and lease terms you can't verify income. St. Paul's cap limits increases for sitting tenants.
  3. Condition vs. 'updated' claim The roof and furnace are new, but interiors in the photos look dated and worn, so budget for turnover work before rents rise.From photo 7
  4. Special assessments and tax reset The seller's homestead tax is lower than an investor's bill, and $796 in assessments needs to be explained or paid at closing.
  5. Negotiating leverage 176 days on market and a $65K 1998 purchase mean the seller can take a lower offer.

From the photos

Listing photo 2
1 of 8Plus

Roof shingles look fairly new on the exterior, consistent with the 2023 roof claim

Listing photo 4
2 of 8Plus

Two separate front entry doors on the porch suggest two units with separate entrances; the porch deck boards look new

Listing photo 3
3 of 8Check

Stucco-style exterior looks freshly painted; this may be cosmetic and could hide the condition of the walls underneath

Listing photo 6
4 of 8Concern

Kitchen appears dated: older laminate counters, basic cabinets, a freestanding stove, with an unusual wall-mounted item above the fridge

Listing photo 7
5 of 8Concern

Living room walls show scuffs, peeling or patched paint and a possible stain near the ceiling line; check for moisture

Listing photo 10
6 of 8Concern

Window air conditioners are in use and rooms have sloped ceilings, which suggests small, attic-level rooms

Listing photo 8
7 of 8Plus

Hardwood floors are visible in the living area and look serviceable

Listing photo 1
8 of 8Check

No photos of bathrooms, the basement, the furnace, the electrical panel or the second unit's kitchen

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneNew furnace (listing spells it 'Furnes')Listing says: New Furnes 2023 and new roof 2023.
  • doneNew roofListing says: New Furnes 2023 and new roof 2023.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$285,000
Cash to close
$65,550
Price per unit
$142,500
GRM
9.5

Each month

Cash flow
−$439/mo
Cash-on-cash
−8.0%
Cap rate
4.5%
DSCR
0.71×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$202,574
Rent that breaks even
$3,070/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$747K vs $716K
Cash flow turns positive
year 15

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,500
Vacancy (6%)−$150
Collected$2,350
Property tax Estimate−$407
Insurance Estimate−$210
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$200
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$225
Net operating income$1,078
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,517
Cash flow−$439
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$193

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$747,155
Your equity when you sell
$650,264

Sells for $691,770 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($41,506). Rent paid down $228,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$96,892

$68,106 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$716,183
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$498,983

$65,550 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$217,200

$39,773 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $30,972 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $747K, stocks $716K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

2 bed estimate $1,250/mo · range $1,100–$1,475 · 25 rentals within 1.5 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
914 Lawson Ave E, Saint Paul $1,490 2 / 1 1,055 0.3 mi 2026-08-31 Apartment
734 Sims Ave, Saint Paul $1,695 2 / 1 1,834 0.5 mi 2026-07-31 Duplex triplex
1360 Payne Ave, Saint Paul $1,199 2 / 1 695 0.6 mi 2026-02-13 Apartment
904-906 Burr St, Saint Paul $999 2 / 1 900 0.8 mi 2025-01-11 Apartment
953 Desoto St, Saint Paul $950 2 / 1 650 0.8 mi 2026-02-12 Apartment
1039-1041 Arkwright St, Saint Paul $1,445 2 / 1 1,100 0.8 mi 2026-09-19 Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N Unit 112, Saint Paul $1,050 2 / 1 880 0.9 mi — Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N Unit 216, Saint Paul $1,215 2 / 1 880 0.9 mi — Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N Unit 114, Saint Paul $1,075 2 / 1 880 0.9 mi — Apartment
1337 Arkwright St N, Saint Paul $1,075 2 / 1 880 0.9 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highPrice is far above what the rents support; negative cash flow at ask Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
  • mediumThe seller is homesteaded, so the current tax bill is lower than what an investor will pay. We use an estimated non-homestead tax instead. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 292922110106: homestead=Y
  • mediumDescription gives no rents, lease status or occupancy, so income can't be verified Listing says: Great investment or wonderful opportunity to live and pay less than rent · AI review
  • medium'Updated' claim doesn't match interior photos: worn walls, scuffed paint and dated finishes in the unit shown Based on: photo 7 · AI review
  • low$796 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 292922110106: special assessments (payable 2026) = $795.86
  • lowWindow AC units suggest no central air; the upper unit has an attic-style sloped ceiling layout Based on: photo 10 · AI review

Opportunities

  • The seller bought for $65,000 in May 1998, so they can take a lower offer and still come out well ahead. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 292922110106: last sale 1998-05-29, $65,000
  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 179 days on market
  • Long time on market and a seller who bought for $65K in 1998 means room for a big price cut Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review
  • New roof and furnace in 2023 should cut near-term capital needs if documented Listing says: New Furnes 2023 and new roof 2023. · AI review
  • Rents are likely below market if the unit is dated; a refresh could lift rent toward our $1,350 mid estimate per unit Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease end dates and security deposits for each unit?
  • Is there a separate furnace and meter for each unit, and who pays heat, water and electric?
  • Do you have permits and receipts for the 2023 roof and furnace?
  • What are the $796 in special assessments for, and are they paid off at closing?
  • Why has it sat 176 days, and has the price been cut?
  • Is the upper unit's bedroom space legal with egress and closets, and is the rental license current?

Bottom line

Newer roof and furnace help, but at $285K the rents don't cover the costs; this only works closer to $203K. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Estimateestimate. Seller is homesteaded; an investor pays the non-homestead rate. $232,800 market value × 2.10% (median for non-homestead duplexes/triplexes in the city).$4,883
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,519
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1914: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-04-09 (179 days); last sold for $65,000 on 1998-07-17.

DateEventPrice
Listed$285,000
Sold public record$65,000
Sold public record$55,000
Sold public record$40,000

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1914
Market value (2026)$232,800
Property tax, payable 2026$3,490
Special assessments$796
Homesteadyes
Last sale1998-05-29 · $65,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

No record in St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential (dataset last updated mid-2025).

Nearest highway

I 35E;US 10, about 1686 m away.

Crime in Payne – Phalen

1,695 incidents in the last 12 months (51 per 1,000 residents), −10% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.