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8015 4th Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 2 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 2,632 sq ft

Lino Lakes, MN · View the listing ↗

Cash flows

Photos courtesy of Exp Realty - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$444,900
2 units · $222K per unit
Monthly cash flow
$723
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$5,300/mo
low confidence
Break-even price
$580,688
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a side-by-side duplex with two 3-bed units, sold as-is for cash or hard money only, and it has sat 235 days at $444,900. Our model shows about $723/month cash flow and an 8.3% cap at asking, but that assumes $2,650 rents per side and unverified taxes, so treat it as a best case. The listing gives no rents, no heat type, no roof or mechanical ages, and no tax data, so the first job is getting real numbers. The financing limit shrinks the buyer pool, which helps your leverage on price. Worth a showing only if you have cash or hard money lined up and can budget for a real rehab.

Things to consider

  1. Cash-only financing limits buyers and signals condition risk Lenders often decline properties with major defects. Get a full inspection and price the repairs before offering.Listing says: “Cash or hard money only for this 6 BR 4 BTH duplex project”
  2. Our cash flow depends on unverified rents and taxes The $723/month at ask uses estimated $2,650 rents per side and no matched tax record. Higher taxes or lower rents shrink it quickly.
  3. As-is sale means no seller fixes Whatever the inspection finds is yours. Build a repair budget and reserve, especially for a 1967 building with an unknown roof and systems.Listing says: “being sold as-is”
  4. Long listing time gives negotiating leverage At 235 days, the seller may accept a meaningful discount, especially from a cash buyer.
  5. Break-even price is well above ask Our model breaks even near $580K versus a $445K ask, which gives cushion if rents hold, but only if repair costs stay contained.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 4Plus

Two single-car garage doors in the center and two separate entry doors, consistent with a side-by-side duplex.

Listing photo 1
2 of 4Check

Brick lower front with upper siding appears intact; the roof is snow-covered, so its condition and age can't be judged.

Listing photo 1
3 of 4Check

A large unplowed or rutted gravel or dirt driveway shows deep tracks and some debris; surface and drainage under the snow are unknown.

Listing photo 1
4 of 4Check

Only one exterior photo is shown. No kitchens, baths, mechanicals, basement or roof views to verify the 'project' scope.

Based on 1 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • neededDuplex project needing work, sold as-isListing says: 6 BR 4 BTH duplex project that needs work and is being sold as-is
  • doneEntry doors updatedListing says: Updated entry doors, painted interiors, ceilings redone and other updates completed.
  • doneInteriors painted and ceilings redoneListing says: Updated entry doors, painted interiors, ceilings redone and other updates completed.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$444,900
Cash to close
$102,327
Price per unit
$222,450
GRM
7.0

Each month

Cash flow
$723/mo
Cash-on-cash
8.5%
Cap rate
8.3%
DSCR
1.31×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$580,688
Rent that breaks even
$4,323/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$3.06M vs $779K
Cash flow turns positive
year 1

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$5,300
Vacancy (6%)−$318
Collected$4,982
Property tax Listing−$396
Insurance Estimate−$205
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (10% of rent)−$530
Capital reserve (10% of rent)−$530
Net operating income$3,091
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$2,368
Cash flow$723
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$301

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$3,061,929
Your equity when you sell
$1,015,096

Sells for $1,079,889 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($64,793). Rent paid down $355,920 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$2,046,834

$871,641 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$778,939
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$778,939

$102,327 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

The building comes out $2,282,990 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $3.06M, stocks $779K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

3 bed / 2 bath estimate $2,650/mo · range $2,150–$2,650

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
15853 Goodview Ave N, Hugo 55038 $2,400 3 / 2 1,450 6.9 mi 2025-08-14 79%
4022 112th Cir NE, Blaine 55449 $2,999 3 / 2.5 2,605 2.8 mi 2026-07-18 79%
15865 Goodview Ave N, Hugo 55038 $2,400 3 / 2 1,450 6.9 mi 2026-01-13 79%
2109 Hillview Rd, Apt 2, Mounds View 55112 $1,899 3 / 2 1,400 6.9 mi 2025-12-02 78%
4817 127th Cir NE, Blaine 55449 $3,800 3 / 1 2,764 1.2 mi 2026-09-15 78%
7026 W Shadow Lake Dr, Circle Pines 55014 off market $1,870 3 / 2 — 2.8 mi 2026-05-08 76%
4940 115th Ave NE, Blaine 55449 off market $2,650 3 / 3 2,314 1.8 mi 2026-08-26 75%
13104 Ghia Ct NE, Blaine 55449 off market $3,600 3 / 1 2,964 2.0 mi 2026-04-30 75%
634 Main St, Circle Pines 55014 off market $3,200 4 / 2 2,584 0.6 mi 2026-03-29 75%
14 Pointcross Dr, Circle Pines 55014 $2,215 3 / 2 1,926 3.3 mi 2026-09-04 74%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highCash or hard money only: the property likely won't pass conventional or FHA lending, which points to condition problems and limits exit buyers. Listing says: Cash or hard money only for this 6 BR 4 BTH duplex project · AI review
  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 8015 4TH AVE
  • mediumSold as-is: the seller won't fix what the inspection finds. Price that in. Listing says: "project that needs work and is being sold as-is . 3 BRs on same level on each"
  • mediumUnspecified 'other updates' and an unknown scope of work; ceilings were redone, which can hide a past leak. Listing says: ceilings redone and other updates completed · AI review
  • mediumNo tax, license or parcel data; the unit count and legal duplex status are unverified, and Lino Lakes rental licensing is unchecked. Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review
  • lowSale history is unknown, so we can't see what the seller paid or whether this is a flip. Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 235 days on market
  • Scarce product: the listing says no other duplexes have been listed nearby in 5+ years, and there is no rent cap. Listing says: no other duplexes have been listed in more than 5 years within miles · AI review
  • 235 days on market with a cash-only buyer pool gives room to negotiate well below ask. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review
  • Layout is rentable: three bedrooms on one level with a full bath and in-unit laundry on each side. Listing says: 3 BRs on same level on each side in the upper level with a full bathroom and main level laundry · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • Why cash or hard money only? Is it the roof, foundation, septic, or something an inspector or lender flagged?
  • What exactly is the work needed, and what 'other updates' were done? Ask for receipts and permits.
  • Are the units occupied? If so, what are the rents and lease terms, or is it vacant?
  • What are the heat type, roof age, panel and water heater ages, and who pays utilities?
  • Is it a legal duplex with a Lino Lakes rental license, and is it on city sewer or septic?
  • What are the annual property taxes, and has the price been cut since February?

Bottom line

A rare side-by-side duplex with decent rent potential, but 235 days on market, as-is, cash-only means something is wrong, so verify condition and taxes before trusting the 8% cap. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2025. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$4,758
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,458
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. "as-is" in the description: +2 pts each10% / 10%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-02-12 (235 days); down $105,000 (19.1%) from the first ask of $549,900; last sold for $160,299 on 2017-03-23.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$444,900
Price changed$449,900
Price changed$499,900
Listed$549,900
Removed—
Price changed$450,000
Listed$474,900
Removed—
Listed$499,900
Sold$160,299
Relisted$99,000
Removed$99,000
Listed$99,000
Removed$168,000
Removed$168,000
Price changed$168,000
Price changed$176,600
Price changed$180,000
Price changed$190,000
Price changed$208,900
Listed$226,300
Sold public record$303,950
Sold public record$206,000

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex side x side
Property tax, 2025$4,758
CountyAnoka
Parcel number063122440009

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Lino Lakes on rental licensing before you buy.