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St. Paul › Payne – Phalen

807 Case Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 1.5 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 1,950 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Payne – Phalen (Railroad Island) · View the listing ↗

Overpriced
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Photos courtesy of Exp Realty - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$260,000
2 units · $130K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$282
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,500/mo
medium confidence · 25 rentals within 1.5 mi
Break-even price
$207,050
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 1883 up/down in Payne-Phalen asking $260K, about $35K over the $225K the seller paid in 2022. Our underwriting at ask with 20% down shows about -$282/month and a 5.1% cap rate, and break-even is near $207K. The description gives no rents, no lease status and no utility info, so the 'cashflow' claim is unproven. Baseboard electric heat and window AC units show in the photos, which could mean tenants pay their own electric, but the county lists central heat, so that conflicts. Get the rent roll, the rental license status and the heat setup before a showing. At this price it only works if you negotiate down or the rents beat our estimate.

Things to consider

  1. Numbers lose money at ask Our underwriting shows negative monthly cash flow at the asking price, and break-even is about $53K lower.
  2. No rent or lease information Without a rent roll you can't verify income, and the owner-occupied lower unit has no rent history.Listing says: “Owners lived in lower unit and rented top unit.”
  3. Rental licensing is unconfirmed No certificate of occupancy turns up in city data, which could mean inspection costs or a delay in renting legally.
  4. Heat and electric setup is unclear Baseboard electric in photos and central heat in county records disagree. Who pays heat changes cash flow by hundreds a month.From photo 8
  5. Rent growth is limited by the 3% cap Sitting tenants can't be raised quickly, so any below-market rent stays below market for a while.
  6. 1883 building with only a roof update disclosed Foundation, wiring, plumbing and the main systems are unmentioned, so budget for an inspection.

From the photos

Listing photo 3
1 of 7Concern

Exterior siding and trim appear to be in fair shape and the roof edge looks tidy, but a pile of loose stone sits by the front steps and the wood steps look rough.

Listing photo 1
2 of 7Check

Window AC units show in the upper-floor windows, which suggests no central air.

Listing photo 3
3 of 7Check

Two mailboxes by the entry, with one marked '2', point to two units and a shared front entrance.

Listing photo 8
4 of 7Check

Electric baseboard heaters and a small breaker panel are visible in the upper unit, which conflicts with the county's 'central' heat listing.

Listing photo 6
5 of 7Plus

Lower-level rooms have fresh carpet, paint and a small egress-style window. A basement half bath has bare block walls, a pedestal sink and a laminate floor.

Listing photo 10
6 of 7Check

Upper-unit floors appear to be low-cost laminate and carpet, and the kitchen, main baths and basement mechanicals are not shown.

Listing photo 4
7 of 7Concern

Enclosed front porch has worn paint and a bare concrete-looking floor. It is usable but dated.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneNew roofListing says: 2022 New roof, fresh pain
  • doneFresh paintListing says: 2022 New roof, fresh pain

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$260,000
Cash to close
$59,800
Price per unit
$130,000
GRM
8.7

Each month

Cash flow
−$282/mo
Cash-on-cash
−5.7%
Cap rate
5.1%
DSCR
0.80×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$207,050
Rent that breaks even
$2,866/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$766K vs $558K
Cash flow turns positive
year 10

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,500
Vacancy (6%)−$150
Collected$2,350
Property tax Public record−$383
Insurance Estimate−$210
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$200
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$225
Net operating income$1,102
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,384
Cash flow−$282
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$176

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$766,058
Your equity when you sell
$593,223

Sells for $631,088 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($37,865). Rent paid down $208,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$172,835

$108,170 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$558,274
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$455,213

$59,800 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$103,061

$17,176 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $207,784 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $766K, stocks $558K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

2 bed estimate $1,250/mo · range $1,125–$1,475 · 25 rentals within 1.5 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
734 Sims Ave, Saint Paul $1,695 2 / 1 1,834 0.2 mi 2026-07-31 Duplex triplex
914 Lawson Ave E, Saint Paul $1,490 2 / 1 1,055 0.2 mi 2026-08-31 Apartment
650 Aguirre St, Saint Paul $1,719 2 / 2 1,028 0.4 mi 2025-05-28 Apartment
904-906 Burr St, Saint Paul $999 2 / 1 900 0.7 mi 2025-01-11 Apartment
953 Desoto St, Saint Paul $950 2 / 1 650 0.7 mi 2026-02-12 Apartment
665 Bedford St Unit 2, Saint Paul $1,400 2 / 1 800 0.8 mi 2023-12-20 Duplex triplex
1039-1041 Arkwright St, Saint Paul $1,445 2 / 1 1,100 0.9 mi 2026-09-19 Apartment
1360 Payne Ave, Saint Paul $1,199 2 / 1 695 0.9 mi 2026-02-13 Apartment
685 Burr St, Saint Paul $1,450 2 / 1 750 0.9 mi 2026-04-08 Apartment
468 Beaumont St E Unit 4, Saint Paul $1,350 2 / 1 800 0.9 mi 2026-07-10 Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highPriced well above the 2022 purchase, and at ask the numbers are negative. Based on: data: underwriting.cash_flow_monthly · AI review
  • mediumNo rental certificate (CofO) on file in the city's data. Ask whether the building is licensed as a rental and when it was last inspected. Public record: St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential: no record for 807 CASE AVE (dataset last updated mid-2025)
  • mediumOwner lived in the lower unit, so there may be no real rent history or lease for it. The upper unit's rent is also unstated. Listing says: Owners lived in lower unit and rented top unit. · AI review
  • mediumBasement 'office' spaces are marketed as extra space. They should not be counted as bedrooms or rentable area without egress and permits. Listing says: two extra space office in lower level and more · AI review
  • low$672 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 292922140178: special assessments (payable 2026) = $672.36

Opportunities

  • Break-even price is about $24K below ask, giving a negotiating target. Based on: data: underwriting.break_even_price · AI review
  • New roof in 2022 removes a major near-term cost, if permits and invoices confirm it. Listing says: 2022 New roof, fresh pain · AI review
  • Owner-occupied lower unit may be easy to turn over and reset to market rent. Listing says: Owners lived in lower unit and rented top unit. · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What is the upper unit's current rent, lease status and move-in date?
  • Is the building licensed as a rental in St. Paul, and when was it last inspected?
  • How is each unit heated, and who pays heat, electric and water?
  • What are the $672 in special assessments for, and who pays them at closing?
  • Can you share roof permit and invoice from 2022?
  • Do the lower-level office rooms have egress windows and permits?

Bottom line

Thin listing at a price that loses money at ask, so only worth a look if the rent roll is strong and the price comes down toward $207K. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$4,600
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,516
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1883: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-09-01 (34 days); last sold for $225,000 on 2022-04-29.

DateEventPrice
Listed$260,000
Sold$225,000
Relisted$214,998
Removed—
Relisted$214,998
Removed—
Price changed$189,998
Relisted$199,998
Removed$199,998
Price changed$199,998
Listed$214,998
Sold$125,000
Listed$129,900
Sold$38,000
Price changed$40,600
Listed$45,600

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1883
Market value (2026)$217,500
Property tax, payable 2026$4,600
Special assessments$672
Homesteadno
Last sale2022-04-29 · $225,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

No record in St. Paul Certificate of Occupancy – Residential (dataset last updated mid-2025).

Nearest highway

I 35E;US 10, about 1731 m away.

Crime in Payne – Phalen

1,695 incidents in the last 12 months (51 per 1,000 residents), −10% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.