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968 Sherburne Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 1 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 2,004 sq ft

Saint Paul, MN · Frogtown (Thomas-Dale) · View the listing ↗

Overpriced
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968 Sherburne Ave, photo 9
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Photos courtesy of Wonderland Realty, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$324,900
2 units · $162K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$581
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,750/mo
medium confidence · 9 rentals within 0.75 mi
Break-even price
$215,681
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

Vacant up/down in Frogtown, asking $324,900, only $25,900 above the $299,000 the seller paid in Dec 2021. Our numbers don't work: about -$580/month at ask and a 4.2% cap rate, with break-even near $216K. The rent estimate is about $1,375 per unit, so the price is the problem, not the rents. The updates sound cosmetic and fast (new sheetrock, new AC, new kitchens), so ask who did the work and whether permits were pulled. The rental license shows expired in 2023, so check that first. It's been listed 127 days, so there's room to negotiate hard, but only worth a showing at a much lower price.

Things to consider

  1. Price doesn't match the rents At about $1,375 per unit the property loses roughly $580 a month at ask. Break-even is near $216K, so a big price cut is needed.
  2. Special assessments add cost The $2,716 is on the 2026 tax bill. If not paid by the seller, it comes out of your pocket or raises carrying costs.
  3. Renovation quality and permits unverified Cosmetic updates can hide old wiring, plumbing and heating. Walls were opened, so permits and inspections should exist.Listing says: “new sheetrock, fully insulated walls”
  4. Licensing and rent rules An expired 2023 rental license must be renewed. St. Paul's 3% cap will limit rent increases once tenants are in place.
  5. Long time on market gives leverage 127 days and an ask above the 2021 sale price suggest the market isn't paying this number.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 7Check

Exterior is painted wood siding with dark-trimmed windows; paint looks fairly fresh, but the siding and roof condition can't be judged from this angle.

Listing photo 2
2 of 7Plus

Bedroom has refinished hardwood floors and newer-looking windows with shades. Looks clean and updated.

Listing photo 4
3 of 7Plus

Kitchen has a white subway-tile backsplash, white cabinets, and a gas range. It looks like a cosmetic refresh, not a full remodel.

Listing photo 4
4 of 7Concern

Bathroom has a dated wood vanity and what appears to be a vinyl floor, so baths weren't updated like the kitchens.

Listing photo 8
5 of 7Plus

A second kitchen with a white fridge, sink and subway tile suggests the second unit is a separate kitchen. Counters appear to be basic laminate.

Listing photo 1
6 of 7Check

No photos of the boiler or furnace, water heater, electrical panel, basement or roof. These are the main costs, and the listing claims new AC but shows none.

Listing photo 9
7 of 7Check

Photo 9 repeats photo 1, so we have only one exterior view and a handful of interior shots. The listing shows nothing about the second unit's layout.

Based on 9 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneNew sheetrock and fully insulated wallsListing says: new sheetrock, fully insulated walls, and brand-new central AC systems
  • doneNew central AC systemsListing says: brand-new central AC systems
  • doneKitchens with new appliances and backsplashesListing says: Both units boast stylish kitchens with new appliances and backsplashes

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$324,900
Cash to close
$74,727
Price per unit
$162,450
GRM
9.8

Each month

Cash flow
−$581/mo
Cash-on-cash
−9.3%
Cap rate
4.2%
DSCR
0.66×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$215,681
Rent that breaks even
$3,505/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$807K vs $898K
Cash flow turns positive
year 18

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,750
Vacancy (6%)−$165
Collected$2,585
Property tax Public record−$529
Insurance Estimate−$211
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$220
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$248
Net operating income$1,148
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,729
Cash flow−$581
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$220

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$807,068
Your equity when you sell
$741,301

Sells for $788,618 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($47,317). Rent paid down $259,920 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$65,768

$49,719 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$898,426
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$568,841

$74,727 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$329,585

$63,971 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

Stocks come out $91,358 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $807K, stocks $898K. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

2 bed estimate $1,375/mo · range $1,300–$1,750 · 9 rentals within 0.75 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
1010 Lafond Ave Apt 1, Saint Paul $1,225 2 / 1 750 0.3 mi 2024-07-01 Apartment
787-789 Aurora Ave, Saint Paul $1,425 2 / 1 888 0.4 mi 2026-09-15 Apartment
769 University Ave W, Saint Paul $1,155 2 / 1 — 0.4 mi 2026-08-03 Apartment
228 Victoria St N Apt 2, Saint Paul $1,695 2 / 1 1,000 0.6 mi 2026-09-01 Apartment
180 Milton St N, Saint Paul $1,650 2 / 1 1,105 0.7 mi 2025-10-02 Apartment
627 Aurora Ave W, Saint Paul $1,300 2 / 1 699 0.7 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
874 Selby Ave Apt 3, Saint Paul $1,250 2 / 1 650 0.7 mi 2026-09-20 Apartment
874 Selby Ave, Saint Paul $1,250 2 / 1 620 0.7 mi 2026-09-28 Apartment
826 Selby Ave Apt 2, Saint Paul $1,700 2 / 1 1,200 0.7 mi — Apartment

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • medium$2,716 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 352923240211: special assessments (payable 2026) = $2,716.46
  • mediumAsking is $109,219 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($215,681) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $324,900 vs. break-even $215,681
  • mediumRental license expired in 2023 and shows renewal due. Confirm it's current and the inspection grade still holds. Based on: data: city.rental_license · AI review
  • mediumUnknown permit status on the 'extensive' updates (walls opened, new AC). Unpermitted work can cause insurance and resale problems. Listing says: extensive, high-quality updates completed by the previous owner · AI review
  • mediumSeller bought at $299K in 2021 and is asking more after a flip-style refresh. Price looks anchored to the seller's basis, not the rents. Based on: data: county.last_sale_price · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 130 days on market, 1 price cuts
  • Separate meters and AC condensers mean tenants can pay their own electric and water, which keeps owner expenses down. Listing says: separate water/electric meters, and separate AC condensers make property management a breeze · AI review
  • Vacant, so you can set rents and screen tenants fresh with no sitting-tenant 3% cap at start. Listing says: This bright, vacant property · AI review
  • Close to light rail helps tenant demand. Listing says: 1 Block to Light Rail · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • Who did the renovation, and were permits pulled for the walls, AC and any electrical or plumbing?
  • What are the $2,716 special assessments for, and will the seller pay them at closing?
  • Is the rental license current, and when was the last city inspection?
  • Why has it sat 127 days, and have there been offers or price changes?
  • What is the electrical service and panel type, and what heats the building (the county lists central water/air)?
  • What were the last tenants paying, if the units were rented before?

Bottom line

Nicely refreshed but vacant and overpriced: at about $1,375 per unit it loses money at ask, so it only works around $216K. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)$6,344
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,531
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1900: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-03-17 (202 days, relisted 1×); down $30,000 (8.5%) from the first ask of $354,900; last sold for $299,000 on 2021-12-06.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$324,900
Removed$354,900
Relisted$354,900
Removed—
Listed$354,900
Removed—
Relisted$354,900
Removed—
Listed$354,900
Sold$299,000
Price changed$299,900
Listed$324,900
Sold public record$1,086,317

County record Public record

Recorded astwo family dwelling - up/dwn
Living units2
Year built1900
Market value (2026)$291,500
Property tax, payable 2026$6,344
Special assessments$2,716
Homesteadno
Last sale2021-12-01 · $299,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

Residential 2 Units: 2 unit(s), A, status renewal due, renews 2023-11-15.

Nearest highway

I 94, about 505 m away.

Crime in Frogtown

824 incidents in the last 12 months (53 per 1,000 residents), −26% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.