Listings tell you the price.
We tell you what it pays.
Every house and 2–4 unit building for sale in Minnesota runs through the same model, every night. It answers two questions before anything else.
Does it pay for itself every month?
Rent minus every real cost, including the mortgage and money set aside for vacancy and repairs. What’s left is cash flow. If it’s negative, you’re paying to own it.
Does it beat an index fund over time?
A rental earns four ways at once. We add them up and compare against putting the same cash into the stock market, so you know if the work is worth it.
Where a rental’s return comes from
A sample duplex: $300,000, rents of $1,700 and $1,600, 20% down at 7%. Drag to change how long you own it.
Before taxes. Assumes rents grow 3% a year, costs 3.5%, the home 3%, and stocks return 7%. Change any of these in the full model.
The four numbers we put first
Cash flow
What you keep each month after every bill. The first thing to check.
Cash-on-cash return
A year of cash flow divided by the cash you put in. Compare it to a savings account or a CD.
Cap rate
The return if you paid all cash. Useful for comparing buildings, whatever the loan.
Break-even price
The most you could pay and still not lose money each month. Your ceiling for an offer.
What we count that a listing won’t
- Vacancy: 6% of rent, about three empty weeks a year
- Repairs and a capital reserve: 8% of rent each, for the roof and furnace you’ll eventually replace
- Taxes from the county’s latest bill, not the seller’s homestead rate
- Insurance, water, sewer, trash, lawn and snow
- Management at 9% if you won’t do it yourself
- Rent from nearby rentals with the same bedrooms, not the seller’s hopes
And the red flags
We check county and city records for what changes whether a building is a good buy: vacant-building registration, fewer licensed units than advertised, delinquent taxes, foreclosure, special assessments and recent flips. Each flag shows its source.
Record checks currently cover St. Paul and Minneapolis.
Plug and play, or go as deep as you want
Plug and play
Every listing opens with the answer: monthly cash flow and a one-line verdict. Change your offer, down payment, rate or rents and it updates as you go.
Try it on a real listingThe full model
Open it to see every line, where each number comes from, rent comps, county records and the 30-year comparison. Every assumption is written down in our methodology.
Analyze your own dealSee every Minnesota listing this way
852 listings cash flow at 20% down today. Get the best of them every Thursday, free.