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2627 Commerce Blvd

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 2 bath ×2 unit split estimated · 2,188 sq ft

Mound, MN · View the listing ↗

Far off
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Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$750,000
2 units · $375K per unit
Monthly cash flow
−$1,616
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$4,300/mo
low confidence
Break-even price
$446,324
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a lakefront duplex priced as a lake property, not as a rental. At $750K the model shows about -$1,616/month at 20% down and a 3.8% cap rate, and break-even is near $446K, so the rents do not carry the price. The only income evidence is one unit renting for $3,000/month by the current owners, which is above our $2,150 mid estimate for a 2/2 and is not a current tenant rent. Its 122 days on the market suggest buyers agree on price. It only makes sense if you want to live in one unit and value the water, and even then get the real rent history, the lower-level layout and the tax bill before a showing.

Things to consider

  1. Price is far above what rents support Negative cash flow of about $1,616 a month and a 3.8% cap rate mean you are paying for the lakefront, not the income.
  2. The $3,000 rent claim needs proof Our estimate is about $2,150 mid for a 2/2. Even at $3,000 for one unit, the numbers are still tight at this price.Listing says: “unit 2627 was previously rented by the current owners for $3,000/month”
  3. Long time on market gives leverage Break-even price is about $446K, so a large cut is needed for investor math, though lake views will keep sellers firm.
  4. Taxes and parcel details are unverified Lakeshore valuations can mean high taxes, and an unmatched parcel means unit count and taxes are not confirmed.
  5. Owner-occupant path is the realistic one Living in one unit lowers your cost and may allow better financing, which investors lack.Listing says: “Live in one unit and let the other help pay your mortgage”

From the photos

Listing photo 2
1 of 7Plus

Kitchen appears recently renovated: white shaker cabinets, granite, stainless appliances and vinyl plank floor. Cosmetic updates look recent.

Listing photo 3
2 of 7Check

Heat appears to be ductless mini-splits plus electric baseboard, so tenants likely pay electric for heat. Confirm metering.

Listing photo 7
3 of 7Check

Bathrooms have a basic prefab tub surround and builder-grade vanity. Fine for a rental, not high-end.

Listing photo 1
4 of 7Check

Back view shows two stacked levels with screened porches, a walkout level and a stone retaining wall. Check drainage and erosion on the slope toward the lake.

Listing photo 10
5 of 7Check

Exterior is vinyl or aluminum siding with a shingle roof that appears in decent shape. Bags of material and pavers sit by the wall, so work may be ongoing.

Listing photo 8
6 of 7Concern

Room has a rough, stained ceiling with visible texture and seams, which looks unfinished and unlike the updated rooms. Check for moisture.

Listing photo 9
7 of 7Check

No photos of the second unit, laundry, panel, water heater or attic, so condition there is unknown.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Rents the listing states

  • 2627: $3,000Listing says: unit 2627 was previously rented by the current owners for $3,000/month

Condition and repairs

  • doneBoth units described as renovated (granite, stainless appliances, finishes)Listing says: Both units have been nicely renovated and feature 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$750,000
Cash to close
$172,500
Price per unit
$375,000
GRM
14.5

Each month

Cash flow
−$1,616/mo
Cash-on-cash
−11.2%
Cap rate
3.8%
DSCR
0.60×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$446,324
Rent that breaks even
$6,399/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.81M vs $2.33M
Cash flow turns positive
year 20

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$4,300
Vacancy (6%)−$258
Collected$4,042
Property tax Listing−$490
Insurance Estimate−$215
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$344
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$387
Net operating income$2,376
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$3,992
Cash flow−$1,616
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$508

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,812,657
Your equity when you sell
$1,711,220

Sells for $1,820,447 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($109,227). Rent paid down $600,000 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$101,437

$81,781 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$2,330,414
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$1,313,114

$172,500 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$1,017,300

$208,068 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

Stocks come out $517,757 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.81M, stocks $2.33M. Stocks win.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-05. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

2 bed / 2 bath estimate $2,150/mo · range $2,150–$2,150

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
7 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 $7,550 2 / 2 1,928 5.4 mi 2026-08-13 89%
11 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 off market $7,550 2 / 2 1,928 5.4 mi 2026-05-29 89%
2 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 off market $8,750 2 / 2.5 2,131 5.4 mi 2026-02-12 89%
4 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 off market $8,250 2 / 2.5 2,131 5.4 mi 2025-12-12 89%
9 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 $7,550 2 / 2.5 1,928 5.4 mi 2026-08-13 87%
10 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 off market $6,995 2 / 2.5 1,928 5.4 mi 2025-12-22 87%
10559 Ridge Rd, Victoria 55386 off market $2,875 2 / 2 1,542 5.2 mi 2026-08-05 85%
5243-5287 Eden Rd, Mound 55364 off market $1,749 2 / 1 1,150 0.8 mi 2025-03-25 83%
108 West Dr, Excelsior 55331 off market $5,950 2 / 2 1,323 5.4 mi 2026-05-29 82%
5616 Grandview Blvd, Apt 302, Mound 55364 off market $1,419 2 / 1 990 0.9 mi 2026-08-30 81%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • highThe $3,000 rent is a past, owner-reported figure, possibly a seasonal or lake-premium rent, and is far above our estimate. Listing says: unit 2627 was previously rented by the current owners for $3,000/month · AI review
  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 2627 COMMERCE BLVD
  • mediumAsking is $303,676 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($446,324) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $750,000 vs. break-even $446,324
  • mediumTaxes and unit count are unverified, and a $750K lakeshore parcel could carry a large tax bill. Based on: data: rule_flags · AI review
  • mediumShared laundry on the lower level, and the lower level looks like walkout living space. Check egress, permits and whether it is part of a unit. Listing says: Shared laundry is conveniently located on the lower level. · AI review
  • lowClaim that no rental license is needed should be verified with the city. Listing says: There is no rental license required, which is an added perk. · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 122 days on market
  • Owner-occupy one unit and rent the other, which is the best fit for this price. Listing says: Live in one unit and let the other help pay your mortgage · AI review
  • Unfinished attic in one unit could add space or rent after permits. Listing says: The attic on the opposite unit offers exciting potential to finish for added square footage · AI review
  • No rent cap, so rents can follow the market. Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the actual rents, lease dates and tenant history for both units, including the $3,000 period and whether it was seasonal?
  • What are the property taxes, and are there any special assessments? Is the lakeshore on any shoreline or dock agreement?
  • Are the units separately metered for electric and heat? Who pays water and sewer?
  • Who did the renovation, and were permits pulled? How old are the roof, the ductless mini-splits and the electric baseboard heat?
  • Is the dock owned or leased, and what is the septic or sewer situation?
  • Why has it sat 122 days, and have there been price cuts or offers?

Bottom line

A beautiful lake duplex that loses about $1,616 a month as a rental at asking, so only buy it as a house you live in. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2025. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$5,884
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,582
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1912: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-06-05 (122 days); last sold for $550,000 on 2024-01-30.

DateEventPrice
Removed$650,000
Relisted$750,000
Removed—
Listed$750,000
Sold public record$550,000

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex side x side
Property tax, 2025$5,884
CountyHennepin
Parcel number2311724140143

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Mound on rental licensing before you buy.