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409 N 51st Ave W

Duplex · 2 units: 2 bed / 1 bath ×2 · 1,822 sq ft

Duluth, MN · View the listing ↗

Cash flows

Photos, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$219,900
2 units · $110K per unit
Monthly cash flow
$84
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,500/mo
low confidence · 6 rentals within 2.75 mi
Break-even price
$235,747
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 2017-updated Duluth up/down with two 2-bed/1-bath units at $219,900, and our underwriting shows about $84/month cash flow at asking with 20% down and a 6.85% cap rate. That is thin but workable, and it only holds if taxes are right, because we couldn't match a county parcel. Our data shows actual rents of $550 and $1,050 against a $1,250 mid estimate, so there is real upside, but the $550 unit looks like a family or long-term tenant and could be hard to move quickly. Ask for the rent roll, lease dates and tax bill first. The 2017 'major updates' claim is broad, and photos show dated kitchens and wall-mounted heaters, so verify what was actually done and permitted. Worth a showing if the taxes and rents check out.

Things to consider

  1. Thin cash flow at asking Underwriting shows about $84/month at asking with 20% down. Any tax or insurance surprise could turn it negative.
  2. Big gap between actual and market rents Actual rents of $550 and $1,050 are well below the $1,250 estimate. Raising them depends on lease timing and tenant turnover.
  3. Taxes are unverified We couldn't match a county parcel, so the tax bill and the extra parcel's status are unknown.
  4. 2017 updates reduce near-term capital risk New roof, windows, electrical, plumbing and furnaces cut major repair risk if they are real and permitted. Verify them.Listing says: “Major updates in 2017 include the roof, windows, doors, furnaces, electrical, and plumbing.”
  5. Dated interiors Kitchens and baths look old, so budget for cosmetic updates at turnover.From photo 4
  6. Extra land adds optionality The additional parcel could support a garage or another structure, but check zoning and what it does to taxes.Listing says: “valuable potential for additional structures”

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 8Plus

Vinyl-sided exterior appears in decent shape, with two separate front entrances and wood stair/deck sections at the rear, consistent with an up/down layout

Listing photo 4
2 of 8Concern

Kitchen has dated oak cabinets, wood paneling wainscot and laminate counters; the vinyl plank floor appears newer but the kitchen overall looks cosmetically old

Listing photo 8
3 of 8Check

Wall-mounted unit in the living area looks like a gas wall heater, which seems at odds with 'furnaces' updated in 2017; confirm heat type

Listing photo 7
4 of 8Plus

Hardwood floors appear to be in good condition in the bedroom and living areas

Listing photo 8
5 of 8Check

Ceilings appear to be older drop-in tile or tin-style panels, which could hide older ceiling conditions

Listing photo 10
6 of 8Concern

Bathroom has an original-style yellow tile surround and a basic vanity, with a water heater visible nearby; dated but usable

Listing photo 4
7 of 8Check

Photos show only one unit's interior; there are no photos of the second unit, basement, panel or furnace

Listing photo 3
8 of 8Check

Large open yard with a possible additional lot and neighboring structures; no garage is visible in the exterior shots

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneRoof, windows, doors, furnaces, electrical and plumbing updated in 2017Listing says: Major updates in 2017 include the roof, windows, doors, furnaces, electrical, and plumbing.
  • doneWater heaters replaced 2019 and 2021Listing says: Hot water heaters were replaced in 2019 and 2021.

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$219,900
Cash to close
$50,577
Price per unit
$109,950
GRM
7.3

Each month

Cash flow
$84/mo
Cash-on-cash
2.0%
Cap rate
6.8%
DSCR
1.07×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$235,747
Rent that breaks even
$2,390/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$1.06M vs $437K
Cash flow turns positive
year 2

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,500
Vacancy (6%)−$150
Collected$2,350
Property tax Listing−$234
Insurance Estimate−$207
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$200
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$225
Net operating income$1,255
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$1,170
Cash flow$84
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$149

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$1,057,877
Your equity when you sell
$501,730

Sells for $533,755 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($32,025). Rent paid down $175,920 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$556,148

$261,432 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$436,967
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$385,005

$50,577 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

Monthly shortfalls, invested
$51,961

$7,304 you'd have paid in while the building lost money, invested instead.

The building comes out $620,910 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.06M, stocks $437K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

The closest rental listings with each unit's bedroom count, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate is the median asking rent of every rental we found nearby (the count is shown for each); houses are left out. Asking rents from Realtor.com rental listings, not signed leases.

2 bed estimate $1,250/mo · range $1,150–$1,525 · 6 rentals within 2.75 mi

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedType
5402 Ramsey St, Duluth $1,950 2 / 2 1,174 0.2 mi 2025-01-03 Apartment
606 N 60th Ave W, Duluth $1,300 2 / 1 1,120 0.6 mi 2026-06-16 Apartment
3015 Restormel St, Duluth $775 2 / 1 850 1.8 mi 2026-09-03 Apartment
2821 Wicklow St, Duluth $1,200 2 / 1 760 2.0 mi 2025-07-03 Apartment
2705 W 2nd St, Duluth $1,195 2 / 1 685 2.0 mi 2026-09-09 Duplex triplex
313 N 21st Ave, West Duluth $1,195 2 / 1 700 2.6 mi 2026-07-14 Duplex triplex

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: Realtor.com rental listings. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 409 51ST AVE W N
  • mediumDescription gives no rents, lease terms or who pays utilities; 'strong rental history' is unsupported Listing says: This solid up-and-down duplex offers a strong rental history · AI review
  • mediumRent of $550 on one unit is less than half the market estimate; the tenant and lease terms are unknown Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review
  • mediumTaxes and unit count are unverified, so the cash flow figure could shift Based on: data: county.tax · AI review
  • lowListing mentions a recently added parcel; confirm it is included in the sale and in the taxes Listing says: A recently acquired additional parcel provides expanded yard space · AI review

Opportunities

  • Current rents are below market. Rents can reset to market at renewal. Based on: Listing rents vs. our market estimate: Unit 1: 2 bed / 1 bath $550 vs $1,250, Unit 2: 2 bed / 1 bath $1,050 vs $1,250
  • Rents are well below market; the $550 unit especially has upside if the lease allows a reset Based on: data: rent_estimate · AI review
  • Extra parcel may allow a garage or additional structure, subject to zoning Listing says: valuable potential for additional structures · AI review
  • Owner-occupy one unit and rent the other (house-hack) Listing says: Live in one unit while generating rental income from the other · AI review
  • Rental license is in place through 2029 Listing says: A current rental license is in place through 1/1/29 · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease end dates and deposits for each unit, and is either month-to-month?
  • Who pays heat, electric, water and trash? Are the furnaces and water heaters separate for each unit?
  • What were the 2017 updates exactly, and were permits pulled for the electrical and plumbing?
  • What are the real property taxes, and does the extra parcel have its own tax bill or assessments?
  • Is the 2-car garage included, and does it sit on the main parcel or the new one?
  • Why is the $550 unit so low, and how long has that tenant been there?

Bottom line

A reasonably updated Duluth duplex with thin cash flow at asking and real rent upside, but verify taxes, the rent roll and what the 2017 work actually covered. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2026. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$2,802
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,481
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1909: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-09-02 (33 days); last sold for $150,000 on 2022-10-24.

DateEventPrice
Listed$219,900
Sold public record$150,000
Removed—
Listed$170,000
Removed—
Listed$175,000
Removed—
Listed$175,000
Sold public record$52,000
Removed$59,900
Price changed$59,900
Listed$66,900
Sold public record$56,900

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex
Property tax, 2026$2,802
CountySt. Louis County
Parcel number010-4530-03460, 010-4530-03450

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Duluth on rental licensing before you buy.