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424 W Birch Ave

Duplex · 2 units: 3 bed / 1 bath ×2 · 1,352 sq ft

Fergus Falls, MN · View the listing ↗

Cash flows

Photos courtesy of KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY BRAINERD LAK - Broker, via Realtor.com.

Asking price
$179,900
2 units · $90K per unit
Monthly cash flow
$139
at 20% down, 7%
Estimated rent
$2,250/mo
high confidence
Break-even price
$205,924
where cash flow hits $0

Adjust the numbers See the full breakdown

First look

This is a 1919 up/down duplex in Fergus Falls, asking $179,900 after 263 days on market. Our numbers show about $139/month cash flow and a 7.3% cap at the ask, so it only just works, and that rests on unverified taxes because we couldn't match a county parcel. The listing gives no rents, no lease status and no expense figures, so the first asks are the rent roll and the tax bill. Photos show a basement with forced-air heat and an electric water heater, but the kitchens and bath look dated, so budget for turnover work. Worth a showing only if rents are near our $1,125 estimates and the taxes hold up.

Things to consider

  1. Thin cash flow at ask About $139/month and a 7.3% cap leaves little cushion for vacancy or repairs; any tax surprise erases it.
  2. Taxes and unit count unverified We couldn't match a county parcel, so the tax bill and legal unit count must be confirmed before trusting the numbers.
  3. Rents are unknown The listing claims upside but states no rents; our estimate is about $1,125 per unit and the upside depends on what tenants pay now.
  4. Dated interiors in a 1919 building Original-era layout, older kitchens and baths and basement mechanicals mean reserves for turnover and system replacement.From photo 5
  5. Long time on market 263 days suggests buyers see a pricing or condition problem; use it to negotiate.

From the photos

Listing photo 1
1 of 7Plus

Vinyl siding and asphalt shingles appear in decent shape; the front porch looks small with an uncovered stoop.

Listing photo 5
2 of 7Concern

Kitchen has dated laminate counters, older cabinets and a basic white range and fridge. Cosmetic refresh needed, not a rehab.

Listing photo 7
3 of 7Concern

Bathroom has a basic fiberglass tub surround and a builder-grade vanity. Appears serviceable but dated.

Listing photo 8
4 of 7Check

Basement has forced-air furnace and electric water heater in view; brick and block walls show some staining and peeling paint. Check for moisture.

Listing photo 10
5 of 7Check

Washer and exposed supply lines sit by the furnace; the basement laundry room walls are bare and unfinished.

Listing photo 2
6 of 7Check

Living room has older carpet and wall paneling; the photo appears staged with furniture and may not match current condition.

Listing photo 1
7 of 7Check

No photos of the upper unit, electrical panel, or roof close-up, so the upper unit's condition is unknown.

Based on 10 of the listing photos. Photos can hide as much as they show; an inspection is the real answer.

Condition and repairs

  • doneVinyl siding (low maintenance) updatedListing says: low maintenance vinyl siding and architectural shingles
  • doneArchitectural shingle roofListing says: low maintenance vinyl siding and architectural shingles

AI-assisted first read of the listing description and photos (Claude), checked against public records. Every rent and repair above quotes the listing; verify with the agent, leases and an inspection.

The numbers

Down payment %
Offer $
Management
Interest rate %
Edit rents, costs and assumptions

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

The deal

Price
$179,900
Cash to close
$41,377
Price per unit
$89,950
GRM
6.7

Each month

Cash flow
$139/mo
Cash-on-cash
4.0%
Cap rate
7.3%
DSCR
1.14×

Break-even

Price that breaks even
$205,924
Rent that breaks even
$2,070/mo

Long run

Year 30: property vs stocks
$971K vs $315K
Cash flow turns positive
year 1

Monthly

Monthly breakdown

Rent$2,250
Vacancy (6%)−$135
Collected$2,115
Property tax Listing−$210
Insurance Estimate−$196
Water, sewer, trash Estimate−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)−$180
Capital reserve (9% of rent)−$202
Net operating income$1,096
Mortgage (principal + interest)−$958
Cash flow$139
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)$122

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr, costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years

How those totals add up

If you buy this building$971,345
Your equity when you sell
$410,465

Sells for $436,665 (value up 3% a year), minus 6% selling cost ($26,200). Rent paid down $143,920 of loan.

Rental profits, invested at 7%
$560,880

$250,108 of cash flow over 30 years, plus what it earned invested.

Same money in stocks$314,972
Cash to close, invested at 7%
$314,972

$41,377 put into an index fund instead of the down payment and closing costs.

The building comes out $656,373 ahead after 30 years.

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $971K, stocks $315K. The property wins.

Comparable rentals

Nearby rentals RentCast matched to each unit type, as of 2026-10-06. The estimate above is RentCast's, weighted toward the closest matches.

3 bed / 1 bath estimate $1,125/mo · range $1,000–$1,225

AddressRentBd / BaSq ftDistanceListedMatch
913 E Vernon Ave, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $1,295 3 / 1 950 1.4 mi 2026-07-02 91%
541-615 W Lincoln Ave West Lincoln Avenue Fergu… off market $1,025 2 / 1 1,040 0.6 mi 2025-11-06 84%
1004 N Union Ave, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $995 2 / 1 925 0.2 mi 2026-01-31 83%
816 W Laurel St, Fergus Falls 56537 $900 2 / 1 895 0.5 mi 2025-04-02 82%
706 W Lincoln Ave, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $1,005 3 / 1 1,100 0.6 mi 2026-08-25 80%
825 Cavour Ave E, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $950 2 / 1 800 1.0 mi 2025-08-05 79%
1095 Westside Dr, # 210, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $930 2 / 1 800 1.2 mi 2026-05-18 79%
1501 College Way, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $950 2 / 1 772 1.0 mi 2024-04-15 79%
537 W Linden St, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $1,150 3 / 2 1,500 0.4 mi 2026-06-09 78%
630 W Linden St, Fergus Falls 56537 off market $1,100 3 / 2 1,500 0.4 mi 2026-06-18 78%

On the maps, this property and comparable rentals. Comparable rentals and rent estimate: RentCast. Rents are asking rents from listings; check them against the actual leases.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

  • mediumCouldn't match this address to a county parcel record, so taxes and unit count are unverified. Public record: County parcels: no match for 424 BIRCH AVE W
  • mediumListing is vague: no rents, leases, expenses or roof age given. 'Well maintained' is unsupported. Listing says: Impressive as it is, with clear potential to increase rents and raise cash flow. · AI review
  • mediumOnly about 1,352 sq ft for six bedrooms, so units are small and bedrooms likely tight. Based on: data: listing.sqft · AI review
  • lowBasement laundry for the main unit is shared space with the mechanicals; unfinished walls and exposed plumbing are visible. Based on: photo 9 · AI review

Opportunities

  • Long time on market: room to negotiate. Based on: Listing data: 263 days on market
  • Rents may be below or near our $1,100 per 3-bed estimate; no rent cap applies, so there's room to push if units are under-market. Based on: data: underwriting.rent_rule · AI review
  • 263 days on market gives room to negotiate; break-even price is above ask. Based on: data: listing.days_on_market · AI review

Questions for the agent

  • What are the current rents, lease terms and move-in dates for each unit?
  • What were the last 12 months of taxes, insurance, utilities and repairs?
  • How old are the roof, furnace and water heater, and is there one furnace or two?
  • Are the units separately metered for electric and gas, and who pays what?
  • Is the duplex licensed as a rental with the city, and has it passed inspection?
  • Why has it sat since January, and have there been price cuts or offers?

Bottom line

A plain, dated Fergus Falls duplex that barely cash flows at the ask, so negotiate hard and verify taxes and rents before going further. AI-assisted summary

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Listinglisting, tax year 2025. The tax the listing states. If the seller lives there it may be at the lower homestead rate; an investor owner pays the non-homestead rate, often 20–40% more on the owner's unit.$2,526
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote$2,352
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. built 1919: +1 pt capital reserve8% / 9%

Price history Realtor.com

On the market since 2026-01-15 (263 days); down $20,000 (10.0%) from the first ask of $199,900.

DateEventPrice
Price changed$179,900
Price changed$189,900
Removed$199,900
Listed$199,900

From the listing Listing

Listed asduplex up and down
Property tax, 2025$2,526
CountyOtter Tail
Parcel number71003990563000

As the listing states it (NorthstarMLS, via Realtor.com). We don't have county records here yet; check the tax, homestead status and special assessments with the county.

Crime, rental-license and vacant-building records are only available for St. Paul and Minneapolis so far. Check with Fergus Falls on rental licensing before you buy.